**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 61% consensus on that outcome.** As of mid-June 2026, Ballotpedia and other trackers confirm seven GOP incumbents among the eleven total senators declining to run again, exceeding typical historical rates for the party in a single cycle. Announcements began in mid-2025 with Thom Tillis (NC) and Joni Ernst (IA), followed by Mitch McConnell (KY), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), and Alan Armstrong (OK) into early 2026. Primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX) in May added to the total without new retirements since March. Factors include age, primary pressure from Trump-aligned challengers, and departures amid post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and policy priorities. No additional Republican exits have been confirmed recently, keeping seven as the baseline while leaving room for late developments before filing deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour7 64%
5 7.8%
11 5.6%
8 5.1%
$77,998 Vol.
$77,998 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
1%
5
8%
6
4%
7
62%
8
5%
9
1%
10
4%
11
6%
12 ou plus
1%
7 64%
5 7.8%
11 5.6%
8 5.1%
$77,998 Vol.
$77,998 Vol.
31 août 2026
<5
$22,362 Vol.
1%
5
$17,009 Vol.
8%
6
$26,639 Vol.
4%
7
$2,172 Vol.
62%
8
$1,614 Vol.
5%
9
$1,490 Vol.
1%
10
$1,337 Vol.
4%
11
$938 Vol.
6%
12 ou plus
$4,438 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 61% consensus on that outcome.** As of mid-June 2026, Ballotpedia and other trackers confirm seven GOP incumbents among the eleven total senators declining to run again, exceeding typical historical rates for the party in a single cycle.
Announcements began in mid-2025 with Thom Tillis (NC) and Joni Ernst (IA), followed by Mitch McConnell (KY), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), and Alan Armstrong (OK) into early 2026. Primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX) in May added to the total without new retirements since March. Factors include age, primary pressure from Trump-aligned challengers, and departures amid post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and policy priorities. No additional Republican exits have been confirmed recently, keeping seven as the baseline while leaving room for late developments before filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$77,998Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 61% consensus on that outcome.** As of mid-June 2026, Ballotpedia and other trackers confirm seven GOP incumbents among the eleven total senators declining to run again, exceeding typical historical rates for the party in a single cycle.
Announcements began in mid-2025 with Thom Tillis (NC) and Joni Ernst (IA), followed by Mitch McConnell (KY), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), and Alan Armstrong (OK) into early 2026. Primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX) in May added to the total without new retirements since March. Factors include age, primary pressure from Trump-aligned challengers, and departures amid post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and policy priorities. No additional Republican exits have been confirmed recently, keeping seven as the baseline while leaving room for late developments before filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$77,998Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 61% consensus on that outcome.** As of mid-June 2026, Ballotpedia and other trackers confirm seven GOP incumbents among the eleven total senators declining to run again, exceeding typical historical rates for the party in a single cycle. Announcements began in mid-2025 with Thom Tillis (NC) and Joni Ernst (IA), followed by Mitch McConnell (KY), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Steve Daines (MT), and Alan Armstrong (OK) into early 2026. Primary defeats for Bill Cassidy (LA) and John Cornyn (TX) in May added to the total without new retirements since March. Factors include age, primary pressure from Trump-aligned challengers, and departures amid post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and policy priorities. No additional Republican exits have been confirmed recently, keeping seven as the baseline while leaving room for late developments before filing deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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