Recent Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade, including the August 24 strike on tanker Amzan, has kept war-risk premiums elevated above 1% of hull value and prompted selective carrier caution despite partial Suez recoveries by Maersk, MSC, and others. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb AIS transits have stabilized near 223–269 vessels in mid-to-late August, with container flows holding firmer than tankers, which fell sharply after the July 20 declaration. This mix of modest volume rebound, rising dark transits, and ongoing geopolitical friction produces tightly contested market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Traders are weighing whether incremental carrier routing gains can offset tanker weakness and any fresh attacks before the resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent par la semaine du 31 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
Combien de navires transitent par la semaine du 31 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
170-189 34%
190-209 34%
210-229 15%
230+ 12%
NOUVEAU
$23,317 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$23,317 Vol.
6 sept. 2026
<170
8%
170-189
34%
190-209
34%
210-229
15%
230+
12%
170-189 34%
190-209 34%
210-229 15%
230+ 12%
NOUVEAU
$23,317 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$23,317 Vol.
6 sept. 2026
<170
$116 Vol.
8%
170-189
$116 Vol.
34%
190-209
$1,224 Vol.
34%
210-229
$8,954 Vol.
15%
230+
$12,908 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade, including the August 24 strike on tanker Amzan, has kept war-risk premiums elevated above 1% of hull value and prompted selective carrier caution despite partial Suez recoveries by Maersk, MSC, and others. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb AIS transits have stabilized near 223–269 vessels in mid-to-late August, with container flows holding firmer than tankers, which fell sharply after the July 20 declaration. This mix of modest volume rebound, rising dark transits, and ongoing geopolitical friction produces tightly contested market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Traders are weighing whether incremental carrier routing gains can offset tanker weakness and any fresh attacks before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Marché ouvert : Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$23,317Date de fin
6 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade, including the August 24 strike on tanker Amzan, has kept war-risk premiums elevated above 1% of hull value and prompted selective carrier caution despite partial Suez recoveries by Maersk, MSC, and others. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb AIS transits have stabilized near 223–269 vessels in mid-to-late August, with container flows holding firmer than tankers, which fell sharply after the July 20 declaration. This mix of modest volume rebound, rising dark transits, and ongoing geopolitical friction produces tightly contested market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Traders are weighing whether incremental carrier routing gains can offset tanker weakness and any fresh attacks before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$23,317Date de fin
6 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade, including the August 24 strike on tanker Amzan, has kept war-risk premiums elevated above 1% of hull value and prompted selective carrier caution despite partial Suez recoveries by Maersk, MSC, and others. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb AIS transits have stabilized near 223–269 vessels in mid-to-late August, with container flows holding firmer than tankers, which fell sharply after the July 20 declaration. This mix of modest volume rebound, rising dark transits, and ongoing geopolitical friction produces tightly contested market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Traders are weighing whether incremental carrier routing gains can offset tanker weakness and any fresh attacks before the resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
180 à 199 navires transiteront-ils par le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb entre le 24 et le 30 août ?
36%
Oui
Y aura-t-il entre 30 et 34 transits quotidiens moyens du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 31 août ?
42%
Oui
Y aura-t-il entre 30 et 34 transits quotidiens moyens du détroit de Bab el-Mandeb le 30 septembre ?
27%
Oui
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