**Recent power struggles and external pressures following the 2026 US-Israel conflict shape trader views on any Iran coup attempt market.** The February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and led to Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as his successor triggered internal factional tensions, with hardliners publicly warning in July 2026 of alleged coup plotting by figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf amid disputes over a fragile US truce and ceasefire terms. Ongoing concerns include economic strain, nuclear negotiations, Strait of Hormuz diplomacy, and risks of renewed unrest or military influence, which traders monitor for signs of organized challenges to the new leadership or institutional shifts. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and any escalation in domestic crackdowns or opposition activity remain key variables that could influence implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,122,602 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
31 décembre
8%
$2,122,602 Vol.
31 décembre
$81,376 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Recent power struggles and external pressures following the 2026 US-Israel conflict shape trader views on any Iran coup attempt market.** The February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and led to Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as his successor triggered internal factional tensions, with hardliners publicly warning in July 2026 of alleged coup plotting by figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf amid disputes over a fragile US truce and ceasefire terms. Ongoing concerns include economic strain, nuclear negotiations, Strait of Hormuz diplomacy, and risks of renewed unrest or military influence, which traders monitor for signs of organized challenges to the new leadership or institutional shifts. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and any escalation in domestic crackdowns or opposition activity remain key variables that could influence implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,602Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Recent power struggles and external pressures following the 2026 US-Israel conflict shape trader views on any Iran coup attempt market.** The February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and led to Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as his successor triggered internal factional tensions, with hardliners publicly warning in July 2026 of alleged coup plotting by figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf amid disputes over a fragile US truce and ceasefire terms. Ongoing concerns include economic strain, nuclear negotiations, Strait of Hormuz diplomacy, and risks of renewed unrest or military influence, which traders monitor for signs of organized challenges to the new leadership or institutional shifts. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and any escalation in domestic crackdowns or opposition activity remain key variables that could influence implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,602Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent power struggles and external pressures following the 2026 US-Israel conflict shape trader views on any Iran coup attempt market.** The February 2026 strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and led to Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment as his successor triggered internal factional tensions, with hardliners publicly warning in July 2026 of alleged coup plotting by figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf amid disputes over a fragile US truce and ceasefire terms. Ongoing concerns include economic strain, nuclear negotiations, Strait of Hormuz diplomacy, and risks of renewed unrest or military influence, which traders monitor for signs of organized challenges to the new leadership or institutional shifts. Scheduled diplomatic deadlines and any escalation in domestic crackdowns or opposition activity remain key variables that could influence implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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