The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stemming from his June 2025 congressional testimony on the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, remains the dominant factor anchoring low market-implied odds of federal charges. Prosecutors found no evidence of criminal conduct after grand jury subpoenas were quashed by a federal judge, leading to referral of cost-overrun questions to the Fed’s inspector general, who had previously identified no fraud. Political friction over interest-rate policy and central-bank independence contributed to the initial investigation but failed to produce indictable facts, consistent with historical precedent that sitting Fed chairs face no criminal exposure absent clear misconduct. Traders price near-zero probability of charges by year-end 2026, reflecting the probe’s termination and absence of new catalysts.