Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourKhamenei # posts July 7 - July 14, 2026?
Khamenei # posts July 7 - July 14, 2026?
50-54 87%
55-59 87%
60+ 87%
<5 46%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 juil. 2026
<5
46%
5-9
45%
10-14
45%
15-19
45%
20-24
45%
25-29
45%
30-34
45%
35-39
4%
40-44
3%
45-49
2%
50-54
87%
55-59
87%
60+
87%
50-54 87%
55-59 87%
60+ 87%
<5 46%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 juil. 2026
<5
$0 Vol.
46%
5-9
$0 Vol.
45%
10-14
$0 Vol.
45%
15-19
$0 Vol.
45%
20-24
$0 Vol.
45%
25-29
$0 Vol.
45%
30-34
$0 Vol.
45%
35-39
$35 Vol.
4%
40-44
$32 Vol.
3%
45-49
$32 Vol.
2%
50-54
$82 Vol.
87%
55-59
$82 Vol.
87%
60+
$82 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$344Date de fin
14 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$344Date de fin
14 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iran's leadership transition following Ali Khamenei's death in early 2026, combined with scheduled funeral observances and mourning events projected for early July, creates substantial uncertainty around official X account activity from @khamenei_ir and related handles during the July 7-14 window. Recent patterns show variable posting volumes, including bursts of multiple statements on military and regional issues by Mojtaba Khamenei’s account amid ongoing diplomatic and conflict developments, but no consistent weekly baseline has emerged post-transition. Trader consensus across numerous count buckets reflects this ambiguity, with skin-in-the-game pricing indicating limited conviction on any single range. Key variables that could shift probabilities include formal announcements tied to succession, escalation signals in foreign policy, or procedural pauses during public commemorations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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