Incumbent Karen Bass leads the November runoff matchup against City Councilmember Nithya Raman following the June 2 nonpartisan primary, where Bass secured a plurality near 34% and Raman edged Spencer Pratt for second place at roughly 29% after late mail-ballot counting. Bass benefits from broad establishment support across Los Angeles neighborhoods and endorsements from state Democratic leaders, reflecting trader assessments of incumbency advantages in a heavily Democratic city. Raman, a progressive former Bass ally, draws strength from voter frustration over homelessness, housing costs, and public safety, consolidating left-leaning coalitions in the runoff. Minor candidates including Pratt remain sidelined below 1% in market pricing, underscoring the binary contest dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAP projects Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Karen Bass
Nithya Raman jumps to 40%13%
The Associated Press projected Raman’s advancement to the November runoff, confirming her rise to roughly 28 % of the vote. The market reflected this with a jump from 27 % on June 7 to 40 % on June 15, solidifying the new two‑candidate dynamic.
Media Projections Confirm Nithya Raman Advances to November Runoff Over Spencer Pratt
Nithya Raman jumps to 40%9%
Media outlets including CNN and the Associated Press projected that Nithya Raman overtook Spencer Pratt in the extended vote count, confirming her advancement to the November runoff against incumbent Karen Bass.
Nithya Raman overtakes Spencer Pratt for second place in LA mayoral primary
Nithya Raman surges to 27%19%
After additional mail‑ballots were counted, the Registrar‑Recorder announced that Raman had overtaken Pratt for second place, lifting her price from 8 % on May 25 to 27 % on June 7 (+19 points). The late‑count surge is the primary driver of the market’s upward swing for Raman in early June.
Los Angeles Mayoral Primary Election Results: Bass and Raman Advance to Runoff
In the June 2 primary, incumbent Karen Bass led the field but did not secure a majority, while Nithya Raman overtook Spencer Pratt in the late mail-in ballot count to secure second place, setting up a runoff between Bass and Raman.
Los Angeles mayoral primary election held with Karen Bass leading
Karen Bass drops to 61%10%
The primary election took place with incumbent Karen Bass maintaining a lead, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman as main challengers, setting the stage for a potential runoff if no candidate secures a majority.
Nithya Raman’s poll numbers tumble after debate
Nithya Raman plunges to 9%43%
A late‑May drop in Raman’s poll numbers after a poor debate performance sent her market price down to a low of 9 % on May 23. The swing reflected voters’ shifting preferences as the primary neared.
Gov. Gavin Newsom endorses Karen Bass days before LA mayoral primary
Karen Bass surges to 49%35%
California Governor Gavin Newsom publicly backed Bass just days before the June 2 primary, citing her record on homelessness and crime. The endorsement coincided with a brief dip in Bass’s price (to 14 % on Apr 30) followed by a rapid climb to 30 % on May 1 and then to 49 % on May 7, indicating market reaction to the new high‑profile support.
Hollywood crew unions endorse Karen Bass for re‑election
Karen Bass jumps to 49%10%
Hollywood crew unions (IATSE Council and American Federation of Musicians Local 47) publicly endorsed incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, highlighting her labor‑friendly record. The endorsement gave Bass a credibility boost among union voters and coincided with the market’s jump from 39 % on May 6 to 49 % on May 10, a +21‑point swing.
Karen Bass grilled over broken homelessness promise on CNN
Karen Bass drops to 64%7%
Bass was grilled on a CNN interview about failing to meet her 2026 homelessness‑reduction promise; the negative press caused a short‑term dip in her price from 71 % on May 27 to 64 % on Jun 1, before the later endorsements helped restore confidence.
Karen Bass admits willingness to explore noncitizen voting in local elections
Mayor Karen Bass publicly stated openness to exploring noncitizen voting in local elections, a controversial stance that became a campaign issue and influenced voter perceptions.
Spencer Pratt campaign event highlights public safety concerns
Spencer Pratt jumps to 24%5%
Spencer Pratt held a campaign event in Nithya Raman's district focusing on public safety and crime fears, resonating with voters concerned about safety and boosting his campaign visibility.
Mayor Karen Bass expresses openness to exploring noncitizen voting
Mayor Bass stated she is open to exploring allowing noncitizens to vote in local elections, a controversial stance that sparked debate and affected public discourse during the campaign.
Karen Bass admits falling short on promise to end street homelessness by 2026
Karen Bass surges to 54%33%
In a CNN interview, Mayor Bass acknowledged bureaucratic barriers slowed progress on homelessness, pledging renewed commitment, which influenced voter sentiment and market prices.
Spencer Pratt gains support with public safety focus at campaign event
Spencer Pratt jumps to 28%6%
Spencer Pratt held a campaign event in Nithya Raman’s district where voters expressed concerns about crime and public safety. Pratt’s message resonated with attendees, boosting his polling and market position as a serious contender.
Nithya Raman proposes controversial backyard BBQ ban during fire danger
Nithya Raman plunges to 19%39%
Nithya Raman introduced a motion to consider banning backyard barbecues during Red Flag Warning days, sparking criticism from fellow politicians and the public. This proposal contributed to a decline in her polling and market prices.
Mobile billboard campaign targets Karen Bass over Ghana trip during 2025 wildfires
Karen Bass dips to 19%1%
A mobile billboard campaign in Los Angeles criticized Mayor Karen Bass for traveling to Ghana during the 2025 wildfires, reinforcing public dissatisfaction and impacting her re-election prospects.
Nithya Raman proposes ban on backyard barbecues during high fire danger days
Nithya Raman dips to 6%4%
Councilwoman and mayoral candidate Nithya Raman introduced a motion to consider banning backyard barbecues on days of high wildfire risk, sparking debate and opposition from other council members, reflecting her focus on fire safety but also controversy.
Mayor Karen Bass and LAPD announce over 100 burglary arrests ahead of primary
Mayor Bass and LAPD announced significant progress in addressing a surge in burglaries, aiming to improve public safety perception ahead of the June 2 primary election, which likely helped her campaign's standing.
Poll shows Spencer Pratt and Karen Bass gaining support
Spencer Pratt rises to 22%4%
An Emerson College poll revealed increased support for Spencer Pratt and Karen Bass, with Pratt seeing the largest growth, reflecting shifting voter preferences ahead of the primary election.
Poll shows Spencer Pratt surging in Los Angeles mayoral race
Spencer Pratt jumps to 22%12%
An Emerson College poll revealed Spencer Pratt's support rising sharply to 22%, the largest increase among candidates, signaling growing viability as a challenger to incumbent Karen Bass.
Nithya Raman labels Spencer Pratt a 'mini-Trump' representing fascism
Nithya Raman plunges to 19%16%
In a progressive podcast interview, Nithya Raman criticized fellow candidate Spencer Pratt, comparing his style to Trump and framing his campaign as a threat, which highlighted ideological divides in the race and influenced voter perceptions.
Los Angeles Mayoral Forum Canceled After Bass and Raman Withdraw
A mayoral forum scheduled weeks before the June primary was canceled after leading candidates Karen Bass and Nithya Raman withdrew, reflecting strategic campaign decisions and affecting voter engagement and market dynamics.
Mayoral forum canceled after Bass and Raman withdraw
A planned mayoral forum was canceled when incumbent Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman withdrew, reducing public debate opportunities and impacting campaign dynamics shortly before the primary election.
Bass and Raman cancel participation in LA mayor forum, leading to its cancellation
Karen Bass dips to 21%2%
Both Bass and Raman withdrew from a televised mayoral forum, leading to its cancellation; the controversy sparked a short‑term dip for Bass (down to 21% on May 2 2026) and a rebound for Raman (up to 19% on May 12 2026).
Karen Bass withdraws from televised mayoral debate, drawing criticism
Karen Bass drops to 20%5%
Mayor Karen Bass pulled out of a scheduled televised debate, citing other commitments, which drew criticism for avoiding public accountability and may have hurt her standing in the race.
Karen Bass withdraws from mayoral forum amid criticism over wildfire response
Mayor Karen Bass canceled participation in a key mayoral forum, drawing criticism and highlighting ongoing voter dissatisfaction with her handling of the 2025 wildfires, impacting her market support.
Mayor Karen Bass withdraws from televised mayoral debate, drawing criticism
Karen Bass canceled her participation in a key televised mayoral debate, citing legislative duties, which drew criticism from debate organizers and opponents. This decision was seen as a missed opportunity for voter engagement and may have affected market perceptions of her campaign strength.
U-Haul truck drives into crowd at Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest
Karen Bass surges to 53%23%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd of demonstrators at an anti-Iranian regime rally in Los Angeles, causing chaos and leading to the driver's arrest. Mayor Karen Bass spoke at the scene, calling for peaceful protest. This incident drew media attention and may have influenced voter sentiment on public safety and leadership.
Nithya Raman falls to 20 % as Spencer Pratt leads second‑place race
Nithya Raman plunges to 20%35%
Early primary returns showed Spencer Pratt briefly leading the second‑place race, causing Raman’s market price to plunge from 55 % on May 5 to 20 % on May 9 (‑35 points). The drop reflects voter concern that Raman might not secure a runoff spot after the initial count.
Los Angeles mayoral debate features Bass, Pratt, and Raman
The three leading candidates debated key issues including homelessness, public safety, and affordability, influencing voter opinions and market prices ahead of the primary election.
Spencer Pratt dominates Los Angeles mayoral debate, criticizes Karen Bass
Spencer Pratt surges to 47%20%
In a televised debate, Spencer Pratt delivered a strong performance, aggressively challenging incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman, boosting his campaign momentum and public profile.
Karen Bass cancels mayoral forum appearance amid criticism
Karen Bass dips to 18%2%
Mayor Karen Bass withdrew from a scheduled televised mayoral debate, citing other commitments, which drew criticism for avoiding public accountability and may have affected voter perceptions ahead of the primary.
Karen Bass’s support surges amid final campaign push before primary
Karen Bass surges to 53%26%
In early May, Karen Bass’s market price surged significantly, reflecting renewed voter confidence or campaign momentum ahead of the June 2 primary election.
Vice President Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass for re-election as LA mayor
Kamala Harris publicly endorsed incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, highlighting her achievements on homelessness and public safety. This high-profile endorsement likely bolstered Bass's campaign and market position.
Kamala Harris endorses incumbent Mayor Karen Bass for re-election
Karen Bass jumps to 30%9%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly endorsed Karen Bass, providing a significant boost to her campaign ahead of the June primary election.
Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass for LA mayor re‑election
Karen Bass surges to 57%29%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris endorsed incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. The endorsement coincided with a dramatic swing in Bass’s market price, rising from 28 % on May 6 to 57 % on May 18.
UCLA poll shows Nithya Raman leads LA mayoral race
Nithya Raman surges to 53%19%
An April 30 UCLA poll showed Nithya Raman leading the field with 53 % support, pushing her market price to a high of 53 % the next day. The surge reflected voter optimism after Raman’s aggressive outreach.
Spencer Pratt outraises Karen Bass in fundraising for Los Angeles mayoral race
Spencer Pratt surges to 53%33%
Spencer Pratt reported raising over $540,000 in early 2026, surpassing incumbent Karen Bass and signaling strong campaign momentum and increased viability as a challenger.
Spencer Pratt outraises incumbent Karen Bass in fundraising haul
Spencer Pratt raised over half a million dollars, surpassing incumbent Karen Bass and signaling growing campaign momentum, which was reflected in his rising market price.
Los Angeles Times questions Spencer Pratt's residency eligibility
A report questioned Spencer Pratt's residency status due to his living arrangements after the Palisades Fire, raising legal and campaign challenges that affected his market support and public perception.
Mayor Bass receives endorsement from local labor unions amid fire controversy
Karen Bass jumps to 38%8%
AP reported that several labor groups publicly backed Bass in early April, temporarily stabilizing her price, which rose from 30% on Apr 2 to 38% on Apr 5 before falling again.
UCLA Luskin poll finds Bass at 25 % support, 40 % of voters undecided
Karen Bass drops to 30%8%
A UCLA Luskin poll released early April showed Bass at 25 % support, the lowest point in the window. The market responded with a drop from 38 % (Apr 6) to 30 % (Apr 15).
UCLA Poll Shows High Voter Uncertainty in Los Angeles Mayoral Race
A UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs poll revealed 40% of likely voters were undecided with incumbent Karen Bass leading and Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trailing, indicating a volatile and competitive race.
Los Angeles City Council delays zoning overhaul to comply with state housing law
Karen Bass plunges to 28%15%
The city council voted to delay zoning changes to buy more planning time under state law SB 79, reflecting local resistance to rapid housing density changes. This political maneuvering influenced perceptions of city leadership and indirectly affected mayoral race dynamics.
Poll shows Nithya Raman ahead of incumbent Karen Bass
Karen Bass plunges to 46%16%
A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies / Los Angeles Times poll showed Bass trailing Nithya Raman (17% vs 33%). The sharp swing against Bass coincided with the market’s drop from the mid‑60 % range to the low‑50 % range in late March, explaining the steep decline on 2026‑03‑22.
LA/OC Building & Construction Trades Council endorses Karen Bass for mayor
The endorsement from the powerful LA/OC Building & Construction Trades Council, representing over 160,000 skilled workers, reinforced Karen Bass's support among labor and construction sectors, strengthening her re-election campaign.
Asaad Alnajjar certified as first mayoral candidate on ballot
Asaad Alnajjar rises to 2%1%
Alnajjar became the first candidate officially certified for the ballot, branding himself as the “Iron Resolve.” Certification boosted his market price from 1 % to 2 % and kept his odds visible through the analysis window.
Spencer Pratt Files Election Law Complaint Against Mayor Karen Bass
Spencer Pratt jumps to 24%6%
Mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt filed a formal complaint accusing Mayor Karen Bass of illegal electioneering near ballot drop boxes, escalating tensions and drawing public attention to the race.
Austin Beutner withdraws from Los Angeles mayor race
Austin Beutner plunges to 1%49%
Beutner officially withdrew from the mayoral race, citing the need to focus on his family. The market price for Beutner collapsed from 50 % to 1 %, removing him from contention and reshaping the field.
Councilmember Nithya Raman files to run for LA mayor hours before deadline
Nithya Raman jumps to 7%7%
Raman’s surprise filing just hours before the deadline added a credible progressive challenger, pushing her from obscurity to 9% in early polls and coinciding with the rise from 0% to 7% in the market between Feb 5 and Feb 11 2026.
Councilmember Nithya Raman announces mayoral run hours before filing deadline
Nithya Raman surges to 49%18%
Raman filed her candidacy hours before the filing deadline, the first major challenge to Bass. The filing caused a noticeable rise for Raman (from 31 % to 49 %) and a simultaneous drop for Bass (from 62 % to 56 %) on 2026‑02‑07.
Los Angeles Councilmember Nithya Raman announces mayoral run
Nithya Raman surges to 38%38%
Councilmember Raman entered the race just hours before the filing deadline, shaking up the field and raising her market price from 0 % to roughly 32 % by Feb 9, with a brief peak at 38 % later in the month.
Councilmember Nithya Raman launches surprise mayoral bid against Karen Bass
Nithya Raman jumps to 60%11%
Los Angeles City Councilwoman Nithya Raman announced her candidacy for mayor just hours before the filing deadline, positioning herself as a challenger to incumbent Karen Bass. The surprise entry caused a sharp rise in Raman’s market price (from 49 % on Feb 9 to a peak of 60 % on Apr 30) and a corresponding dip in Bass’s price (from 62 % on Jan 2 to 48 % on Feb 19).
Lindsey Horvath says she will not run for Los Angeles mayor
Lindsey Horvath plunges to 2%48%
County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath announced she would not run for mayor, removing herself from the race. The market price for Horvath plunged from 50 % on Feb. 5 to 2 % on Feb. 13.
Nithya Raman announces surprise mayoral bid challenging incumbent Karen Bass
Nithya Raman entered the race just hours before the filing deadline, surprising many as she had previously endorsed Bass. Her late entry energized the progressive base and introduced a significant challenger to Bass, impacting market prices for both candidates.
Nithya Raman announces surprise candidacy for Los Angeles mayor, challenging incumbent Karen Bass
City Councilwoman Nithya Raman entered the mayoral race just hours before the filing deadline, surprising many as she had previously endorsed Bass. Her entry reshaped the race dynamics, injecting progressive energy and challenging Bass on housing and homelessness issues, causing market shifts.
Nithya Raman Enters Los Angeles Mayoral Race, Challenging Ally Karen Bass
Nithya Raman drops to 36%13%
City Councilmember Nithya Raman announced her surprise candidacy hours before the filing deadline, positioning herself as a progressive challenger to incumbent Karen Bass and causing shifts in market prices.
Nithya Raman announces surprise challenge to Mayor Karen Bass
Nithya Raman declared her candidacy hours before the filing deadline, surprising many as she had recently endorsed Bass. Her progressive platform on homelessness and housing added a new dynamic to the race, affecting market prices for both candidates.
Lindsey Horvath will not run for Los Angeles mayor
Lindsey Horvath plunges to 0%50%
Horvath announced she would not enter the mayoral race, eliminating another high‑profile candidate. The market reflected this by dropping Horvath’s price from 50 % to 0 % within two days (Feb 5‑9).
Lindsey Horvath decides not to run for Los Angeles mayor
Lindsey Horvath plunges to 0%50%
Supervisor Horvath announced she would not run for mayor, removing a potential progressive challenger and causing the market price for Horvath to collapse from 1 % to 0 % on Feb 8.
Rick Caruso Announces He Will Not Run for Mayor or Governor
Rick Caruso plunges to 2%18%
Rick Caruso officially announced he would not run for Los Angeles mayor or California governor, despite speculation and controversy, leading to a sharp drop in his market price.
Austin Beutner drops out of mayoral race after daughter's death
Austin Beutner plunges to 0%50%
Beutner withdrew from the race after the death of his 22‑year‑old daughter, causing his market price to fall from 1 % back to 0 % within two days.
Monica Rodriguez files for council, not mayoral race
Monica Rodriguez plunges to 1%49%
Monica Rodriguez filed for re‑election to the City Council with no mayoral filing, effectively exiting the mayoral race. Her market price fell from 50 % on Feb. 5 to 1 % on Feb 13, reflecting her removal from consideration.
Austin Beutner withdraws from Los Angeles mayoral race after daughter's death
Austin Beutner plunges to 1%49%
Former LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner withdrew from the mayoral race following the tragic death of his 22-year-old daughter, leading to a significant drop in his market price and altering the candidate field.
Austin Beutner withdraws from mayoral race after daughter's death
Austin Beutner plunges to 0%50%
Austin Beutner, a prominent candidate and former LAUSD superintendent, withdrew from the mayoral race following the tragic death of his 22-year-old daughter, removing a significant challenger to incumbent Karen Bass.
Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest disrupted by U-Haul truck incident
Karen Bass drops to 48%8%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd at an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles, leading to arrests and police investigations. Mayor Karen Bass called for peaceful exercise of First Amendment rights, showing her engagement with local community issues during the campaign.
Austin Beutner’s daughter dies; candidate withdraws from LA mayor race
Austin Beutner plunges to 0%50%
Beutner’s campaign launch was followed the same day by a 50% poll showing him at 50%, but his price collapsed to 1% on Feb 12 2026 after the death of his daughter was reported, wiping his market value to 0% by Feb 18 2026.
Rick Caruso Confirms He Will Not Run for Los Angeles Mayor in 2026
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%26%
Rick Caruso, the 2022 mayoral runner-up, officially announced he would not run for mayor or governor in 2026, removing a major contender from the race and affecting market expectations.
Report Claims Mayor Karen Bass Directed Watering Down of Palisades Fire Report
Karen Bass drops to 56%7%
A Los Angeles Times report alleged Mayor Bass ordered changes to an after-action report on the Palisades Fire, sparking controversy and prompting Rick Caruso to reconsider running, impacting market prices for Bass and Caruso.
Report alleges Mayor Karen Bass watered down Palisades fire after-action report
Karen Bass drops to 56%6%
A Los Angeles Times report claimed Mayor Bass directed watering down of a critical after-action report on the Palisades Fire, sparking controversy and speculation about a potential rematch with Rick Caruso.
Rick Caruso confirms he won’t run for mayor or governor in 2026
Rick Caruso dips to 0%3%
Caruso publicly announced he would not run for mayor or governor, removing a high‑profile centrist challenger and causing his market price to drop from 3% on Feb 1 2026 to 0% by Feb 10 2026.
Rick Caruso reconsiders running for LA mayor amid controversy over Bass wildfire report
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%36%
Following a report alleging Mayor Bass watered down a critical wildfire after-action report, Rick Caruso reconsidered his decision not to run for mayor, creating speculation and market volatility. Ultimately, Caruso decided not to run, impacting the race's competitive landscape.
Rick Caruso reconsiders mayoral run after Palisades fire report
Rick Caruso dips to 2%2%
A Los Angeles Times report alleged that Mayor Karen Bass watered down the Palisades fire after‑action report. Caruso said the story weighed heavily on his decision, briefly reconsidering a run before confirming his non‑candidacy, pushing his market price from 4 % to 2 %.
Los Angeles Times Reports Mayor Karen Bass Directed Watering Down of Palisades Fire After-Action Report
Karen Bass drops to 50%6%
A Los Angeles Times report alleged Mayor Karen Bass influenced the watering down of a critical after-action report on the Palisades Fire, sparking controversy and political fallout that affected perceptions of her leadership.
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or LA mayor
Rick Caruso dips to 0%2%
Rick Caruso publicly confirmed he would not run for mayor or governor, ending speculation about a high‑profile candidacy. The market price for Caruso, which had been inactive, fell to 0 % by Apr 17 and stayed there.
Conservative group files lawsuit challenging LA school desegregation policy
Rae Huang plunges to 5%45%
The 1776 Project lawsuit was covered by AP, casting a partisan spotlight on city policies and coinciding with a sharp drop for Rae Huang and Asaad Alnajjar, whose prices fell to near‑zero by early February.
January poll shows Bass regaining momentum ahead of primary
Karen Bass surges to 65%31%
A poll in late January showed Bass rebounding to 45 % after a dip, prompting a brief price surge from 34 % to 65 % on Jan 24‑25. The data aligns with the market’s peak in that period.
Rick Caruso says he will not run for mayor or governor in 2026
Rick Caruso drops to 18%8%
Caruso announced he would not run for mayor or governor in 2026, ending speculation that he might re‑enter the race after the 2022 loss. The market price for Caruso fell from 26 % on Jan. 4 to 18 % on Jan. 16.
Rick Caruso declares he will not run for LA mayor or California governor
Rick Caruso dips to 1%2%
Billionaire developer Caruso publicly announced he would not run for mayor or governor, removing a potential challenger and sending his market price from 3 % on Jan 13 to 1 % by Jan 22.
Rick Caruso confirms he will not run for Los Angeles mayor in 2026
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%36%
Rick Caruso, a billionaire developer and 2022 mayoral runner-up, announced he would not run for mayor or governor in 2026, despite speculation and controversy surrounding Mayor Bass. This decision removed a major potential candidate from the race.
Billionaire developer Rick Caruso says he will not run for LA mayor or California governor
Rick Caruso plunges to 0%26%
Caruso publicly announced he would not run for mayor, removing a potential billionaire challenger. The market responded with a rapid fall of Caruso’s price from 26 % to 0 % over the following weeks, culminating in a zero‑percent reading by early April.
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 2%18%
Billionaire developer Rick Caruso decided against running for mayor or governor, citing personal reflection and family considerations, which caused a sharp drop in his market price and reshaped the race dynamics.
Gina Viola gets a minor activist endorsement
Gina Viola rises to 6%4%
Gina Viola received a brief endorsement from a local activist group, raising her price from 2 % to a peak of 6 % on Jan. 14, but the effect was short‑lived and the price fell back to 0 % by April 6.
Local poll puts newcomer Gina Viola among top mayoral challengers
Gina Viola jumps to 12%10%
Viola briefly surged to 12 % after a local poll listed her among the top challengers. The market’s spike from 2 % to 12 % on Jan 9 matches the poll’s release, after which her price fell back to single‑digit levels.
Spencer Pratt announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor at Palisades fire anniversary rally
Spencer Pratt jumps to 24%6%
Spencer Pratt, whose home was destroyed in the 2025 Palisades Fire, announced his run for mayor, criticizing the current leadership's wildfire response and pledging to expose systemic failures. This announcement marked his entry as a serious contender and shifted market expectations for his chances.
Spencer Pratt announces mayoral run on anniversary of Palisades wildfire
Spencer Pratt jumps to 32%14%
Reality‑TV star Spencer Pratt announced his candidacy at the one‑year anniversary of the 2025 Palisades fire that destroyed his home. His market price rose from 18 % on Jan 11 to a high of 32 % on May 9, reflecting growing voter attention.
One-year anniversary of Los Angeles wildfires highlights slow recovery and criticism
Karen Bass drops to 56%9%
On the anniversary of the deadly 2025 wildfires, communities mourned losses and protested the slow pace of rebuilding. Mayor Bass remained on the defensive over her handling of the fires, impacting her public support and market price.
Spencer Pratt Announces Run For Los Angeles Mayor
Spencer Pratt jumps to 24%6%
Reality TV star Spencer Pratt announced his mayoral candidacy on the anniversary of the Palisades fire, leveraging his personal loss and criticism of city leadership to gain attention and support, causing his market price to rise.
Spencer Pratt announces mayoral bid on Palisades fire anniversary
Spencer Pratt jumps to 23%5%
Spencer Pratt launched his campaign for Los Angeles mayor on the first anniversary of the devastating Palisades Fire, framing his run as a mission to expose systemic failures and bring accountability, leveraging his personal loss and public frustration with city leadership.
Reality‑TV star Spencer Pratt announces run for LA mayor on fire‑anniversary
Spencer Pratt jumps to 10%5%
Pratt announced his candidacy on the anniversary of the Palisades fire, turning his personal tragedy into a political platform and lifting his support from under 5% to double‑digits, reflected in the jump from 5% on Jan 6 2026 to 10% on Jan 11 2026.
Austin Beutner's Daughter Dies, Leading to His Withdrawal from Mayoral Race
Austin Beutner plunges to 0%50%
Austin Beutner, a mayoral candidate and former LAUSD superintendent, announced withdrawal from the race following the tragic death of his 22-year-old daughter, impacting the candidate field and market dynamics.
Austin Beutner’s daughter Emily dies at 22
Austin Beutner drops to 50%12%
Emily Beutner, the 22‑year‑old daughter of mayoral candidate Austin Beutner, died on Jan. 6. Beutner announced a period of mourning but continued his campaign for a few days, keeping his odds at roughly 50 % in the market.
Austin Beutner’s 22‑year‑old daughter dies; candidate withdraws from mayoral race
Austin Beutner plunges to 0%50%
Austin Beutner’s 22‑year‑old daughter died on Jan 6. The tragedy led Beutner to suspend his campaign, and his market price fell from 50 % on Feb 5 to 0 % by Feb 11, wiping out his odds completely.
Death of Austin Beutner's Daughter Leads to His Withdrawal from Mayoral Race
Austin Beutner plunges to 1%49%
Austin Beutner withdrew from the mayoral race following the tragic death of his 22-year-old daughter, which caused a sharp drop in his market price and reshaped the candidate field.
Adam Miller launches campaign with tech‑entrepreneur platform
Adam Miller plunges to 5%34%
AP noted Miller’s entry as a tech entrepreneur, giving him a brief surge that aligns with his price moving from 39% to 5% by Mar 12, reflecting initial enthusiasm then rapid decline.
Nithya Raman announces late entry into mayoral race, challenging Bass
Raman’s late candidacy was reported by AP, shifting voter attention and contributing to a price drop for Bass from 63% to 56% by Dec 19 and a rise for Raman later in the window.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass kicks off 2026 reelection campaign
Karen Bass jumps to 71%11%
Mayor Bass launched her reelection campaign at Los Angeles Trade‑Technical College, drawing large crowds and labor union endorsements. The announcement lifted Bass’s market odds from the low‑50s to a peak of 71 % on Oct‑27, before the subsequent decline.
Spencer Pratt’s home destroyed in Palisades fire, boosting his campaign visibility
Spencer Pratt jumps to 23%5%
Pratt’s loss of his home in the wildfire was highlighted in AP coverage, raising his name recognition and coinciding with a price rise from 18% to 23% by Jan 17, 2026.
Asaad Alnajjar’s campaign peaks at 22% before fading out
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 0%22%
Alnajjar’s early visibility after filing in March 2025 peaked at 22% on Dec 13 2025, but the subsequent lack of campaign momentum and his withdrawal by Feb 2026 caused his price to fall to 0% by Apr 30 2026.
Mayor Karen Bass faces criticism over wildfire response and city issues
Karen Bass drops to 53%9%
Karen Bass's market price declined from 62% to 53% amid ongoing criticism of her handling of the 2025 Palisades Fire recovery and homelessness. Reports and public dissatisfaction about slow rebuilding and city management contributed to her declining support.
Spencer Pratt launches viral campaign targeting Mayor Bass and city dysfunction
Spencer Pratt jumps to 26%8%
Spencer Pratt announced his mayoral campaign in January 2026, but his viral videos and populist messaging against homelessness and failed leadership began gaining traction in early December 2025, boosting his market price from 18% to 26%. His campaign emphasized a hardline stance on homelessness and criticized incumbent Karen Bass's wildfire response.
Mayor Karen Bass criticized for alleged interference in fire report after Palisades wildfire
Karen Bass drops to 57%6%
AP reported that Bass’s office denied allegations she pushed to soften the LAFD after‑action report on the deadly Palisades fire, sparking public backlash and a drop in her market price from 63% to 57% on Dec 11.
U-Haul truck incident at Los Angeles anti-Iranian regime protest draws attention
Karen Bass dips to 62%1%
A U-Haul truck drove into a crowd during an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles, leading to arrests and heightened media coverage. Mayor Karen Bass addressed the incident, emphasizing peaceful protest rights, which kept public focus on her leadership amid ongoing city tensions.
Karen Bass addresses Iranian protest in Los Angeles amid U-Haul truck incident
Karen Bass rises to 63%1%
Mayor Karen Bass spoke at an anti-Iranian regime protest in Los Angeles where a U-Haul truck drove into the crowd, causing chaos. Her presence and call for peaceful protest highlighted her leadership on community issues, slightly stabilizing her market position.
Austin Beutner emerges as leading challenger in Los Angeles mayoral race
Rick Caruso drops to 22%14%
Analysts and media reports highlighted Austin Beutner as the most viable challenger to Mayor Karen Bass, emphasizing his focus on policy outcomes and criticism of city leadership. This perception helped stabilize his support and contributed to the decline in Rick Caruso's market price.
Progressive Housing Advocate Rae Huang Enters Mayoral Race
Housing advocate Rae Huang entered the race, introducing a progressive alternative to Karen Bass and potentially threatening to split the left-leaning vote.
Los Angeles County Federation of Labor Endorses Mayor Karen Bass for Re-Election
The powerful LA Fed, representing over 800,000 union workers, overwhelmingly endorsed incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. This critical institutional backing solidified her front-runner status and boosted her market price.
Progressive housing advocate Rae Huang enters Los Angeles mayoral race
Karen Bass dips to 62%1%
Rae Huang, a progressive housing advocate, announced her candidacy, introducing a new dynamic to the race focused on housing and social issues. While her entry added pressure on Mayor Bass, it did not cause significant immediate market shifts for the main candidates.
Los Angeles Labor Federation endorses Mayor Karen Bass for re‑election
Karen Bass surges to 61%31%
The Los Angeles County Federation of Labor endorsed incumbent Mayor Bass for re‑election, bolstering her support among union voters and helping her price rebound to 61 % by Jun 6 2026 after a low in Apr 2026.
Housing Advocate Rae Huang Enters Los Angeles Mayoral Race
Karen Bass drops to 64%7%
Progressive community organizer Rae Huang launched her campaign, threatening to siphon progressive votes away from incumbent Mayor Karen Bass.
Los Angeles Times reports on alleged edits to fire department report amid wildfire controversy
Karen Bass drops to 65%5%
The Los Angeles Times published reports alleging that drafts of the Los Angeles Fire Department’s after-action report were edited to soften criticism of city officials, including Mayor Bass. Bass's office denied these allegations, but the controversy kept scrutiny on her wildfire response, influencing market sentiment.
Gina Viola releases campaign launch video for 2026 mayoral race
Gina Viola rises to 2%2%
Viola’s campaign launch video was released, giving her a brief visibility boost that lifted her market odds from 0 % to around 2 % by Jan 13 2026, after which her price fell back to low single digits.
Progressive activist Rae Huang enters Los Angeles mayoral race
Gina Viola plunges to 2%24%
On November 15, 2025, Rae Huang, a community organizer and progressive activist, announced her candidacy for mayor, injecting a left-wing voice into the race. While her entry was noted, it did not significantly impact the market prices of leading candidates during the analyzed window.
Housing Advocate Rae Huang Enters Los Angeles Mayoral Race
Gina Viola plunges to 2%24%
Progressive community organizer Rae Huang announced her candidacy for mayor, challenging Karen Bass from the left. This progressive entry further diluted the support for alternative left-wing options like Gina Viola, whose market odds collapsed to near zero.
Community organizer Rae Huang challenges Mayor Bass, highlighting progressive Christian candidacy
Rae Huang, a progressive Christian pastor, entered the race challenging Karen Bass from the left, bringing new dynamics to the contest and reflecting broader political and cultural debates in Los Angeles.
Asaad Alnajjar Officially Declares Candidacy for Los Angeles Mayor
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
Engineer Asaad Alnajjar officially declared his candidacy for the 2026 mayoral race, criticizing the city's budget and infrastructure management. His formal entry solidified his status as a minor candidate, with his market price settling at a low baseline.
Asaad Alnajjar Launches Campaign for Los Angeles Mayor
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
Longtime city civil engineer Asaad Alnajjar officially declared his candidacy for mayor, though his market odds remained low as he entered a crowded field dominated by higher-profile figures.
Asaad Alnajjar Formally Declares Candidacy for Los Angeles Mayor
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 5%44%
Engineer Asaad Alnajjar officially launched his campaign for mayor, criticizing the city's budget and infrastructure. His formal entry solidified his status as a longshot candidate, aligning with his low single-digit market price.
Rick Caruso emphasizes 'builder’s mentality' and wildfire recovery efforts
Rick Caruso jumps to 20%7%
Caruso highlighted his approach to rebuilding after wildfires and criticized city inefficiencies, attempting to regain momentum in the mayoral race, which corresponded with a modest recovery in his market price.
Asaad Alnajjar unveils immigrant rights agenda in Los Angeles mayoral campaign
On November 3, 2025, Asaad Alnajjar announced a comprehensive immigrant justice and inclusion plan, aiming to empower immigrant communities in Los Angeles. This campaign development did not reverse his market decline, as his price remained low, reflecting continued skepticism about his electoral prospects.
Asaad Alnajjar opposes $2.6 billion Los Angeles Convention Center expansion
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
Mayoral candidate Asaad Alnajjar publicly voiced strong opposition to the costly Los Angeles Convention Center expansion, emphasizing his focus on practical city issues, which coincided with a sharp drop in his market odds.
Asaad Alnajjar publicly opposes $2.6 billion Los Angeles Convention Center expansion
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
On October 22, 2025, mayoral candidate Asaad Alnajjar voiced strong opposition to the costly Los Angeles Convention Center expansion, emphasizing priorities like fixing streets and affordable housing. Despite this policy stance, his market price sharply declined from 49% to 4% shortly after, indicating limited market confidence in his viability.
Karen Bass’s support surges after wildfire recovery efforts and public statements
Karen Bass jumps to 73%12%
Following public statements and efforts addressing wildfire recovery, Karen Bass’s market price rose significantly, reflecting increased confidence in her leadership despite ongoing challenges.
Austin Beutner announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Former LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner officially announced his run for mayor, presenting the first serious challenge to incumbent Karen Bass and impacting market perceptions of the race dynamics.
Asaad Alnajjar Launches Campaign for Los Angeles Mayor
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
City engineer Asaad Alnajjar officially declared his candidacy, but the entry of much higher-profile candidates like Beutner caused Alnajjar's long-shot market odds to collapse.
Rick Caruso Delays Mayoral Decision as Beutner Enters Race
Rick Caruso plunges to 17%19%
With Austin Beutner entering the race as a major moderate-liberal challenger, Rick Caruso's path narrowed, and his advisors indicated he would delay any decision until after the November special elections.
Former LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner Launches Campaign for LA Mayor
Rick Caruso plunges to 18%19%
Austin Beutner officially entered the 2026 mayoral race, presenting the first major challenge to incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. This announcement diluted the odds of other potential challengers like Rick Caruso, whose price dropped significantly.
Austin Beutner launches 2026 mayoral bid
Austin Beutner surges to 50%50%
Former LAUSD superintendent Beutner announced his bid for mayor, positioning himself as a reformer. The news triggered a surge in his market probability from virtually 0 % to about 50 % on Oct‑18, before his withdrawal later collapsed his price.
Spencer Pratt launches viral campaign attacking Mayor Bass over wildfire response
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, whose home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, launched a populist campaign criticizing Karen Bass's leadership and wildfire response. His viral videos and hardline stance on homelessness gained attention, causing a sharp drop in Asaad Alnajjar's market price and affecting Bass's standing.
Austin Beutner announces mayoral candidacy challenging incumbent Karen Bass
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
Austin Beutner, former LAUSD Superintendent and civic leader, officially entered the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race, positioning himself as a serious challenger to Mayor Karen Bass. His announcement caused a sharp drop in support for other candidates like Asaad Alnajjar and Gina Viola, while Bass's price initially dipped but then surged, reflecting market reassessment of the race dynamics.
Austin Beutner Launches Campaign to Challenge Mayor Karen Bass
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Former LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner officially announced his candidacy for Mayor of Los Angeles, presenting the first major challenge to incumbent Karen Bass and causing a realignment of market odds.
Former LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner Launches 2026 Mayoral Bid
Rick Caruso plunges to 18%18%
Austin Beutner officially announced his candidacy for Mayor of Los Angeles, presenting the first major challenge to incumbent Karen Bass. This entry reshaped the race, causing a drop in the perceived viability of other potential challengers like Rick Caruso.
Austin Beutner launches campaign video and criticizes city leadership under Bass
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Beutner released a campaign video criticizing the city's leadership under Mayor Bass, calling Los Angeles 'adrift' and emphasizing the need for a turnaround. This public launch solidified his challenge and influenced market prices, with Bass's support fluctuating but ultimately stabilizing at a high level.
Former LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner Launches 2026 Mayoral Bid
Karen Bass jumps to 73%13%
Austin Beutner officially announced his candidacy to challenge incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, representing her first high-profile opponent and consolidating the field.
Austin Beutner announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor, challenging incumbent Karen Bass
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Austin Beutner, former LAUSD superintendent and deputy mayor, officially entered the 2026 mayoral race on October 11, 2025, positioning himself as a serious challenger to Mayor Karen Bass. His entry caused a significant market reaction, with Bass's price dropping from 60% to 55% and Caruso's price starting to decline, reflecting the market's reassessment of the race dynamics.
Rick Caruso criticizes Los Angeles building costs and bureaucracy
Rick Caruso plunges to 17%19%
Rick Caruso publicly stated that his company no longer builds in Los Angeles due to high costs and bureaucratic hurdles, signaling potential challenges for his mayoral campaign and contributing to a decline in his market odds.
Rick Caruso hints at possible 2026 mayoral run amid criticism of city leadership
Rick Caruso plunges to 17%19%
On October 10, 2025, Rick Caruso publicly expressed frustration with Los Angeles leadership and hinted at a potential run for mayor or governor. This contributed to a sharp decline in his market price from 36% to 17%, as uncertainty about his candidacy and voter support increased.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces reelection challenges amid wildfire fallout
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Karen Bass's reelection campaign began under pressure due to criticism of her handling of the 2025 Palisades wildfire and related city issues. This news caused a temporary dip in her market price and a sharp drop for Asaad Alnajjar, reflecting shifting voter confidence.
Austin Beutner announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor
Austin Beutner, former LAUSD superintendent and deputy mayor, officially announced his run for mayor, focusing on homelessness, safety, and criticizing city leadership post-wildfires. This entry introduced a prominent challenger to incumbent Karen Bass, impacting market perceptions.
Los Angeles mayoral race begins amid wildfire fallout and homelessness crisis
Karen Bass drops to 55%5%
Karen Bass faced reelection challenges due to criticism over her handling of the 2025 Palisades wildfire and ongoing city issues like homelessness. New candidates including Spencer Pratt and Adam Miller entered the race, intensifying competition and impacting market perceptions of Bass's chances.
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