Forecast consensus from major models points to a mild overnight minimum of 11–13°C in Buenos Aires on August 26 under persistent high pressure near 1024 hPa and light northeasterly winds, limiting radiative cooling and cold-air advection. Small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact wind speeds create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 6–14°C outcomes, as even modest increases in low-level moisture or reduced mixing could drop readings by 1–2°C. Historical late-August climatology shows typical minima near 8–11°C, so traders weigh recent observations against the current stable synoptic pattern that favors limited overnight drops. Updated model runs and surface data over the next 12–24 hours will refine these ranges before resolution.