Latest Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs from the ECMWF and UKV project daytime maxima of 24–25°C across London on August 25 under largely sunny intervals and light southerly flow, though increasing uncertainty in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing keeps probabilities tightly clustered around 22–24°C. Recent analyses highlight modest warming from above-average sea-surface temperatures in the North Sea and a weak ridge suppressing strong advection, yet small shifts in frontal timing or convective development could cap readings at 23°C or allow a brief push higher. Historical August variability in the London basin shows similar late-summer days frequently resolving within a 2°C window, underscoring why trader consensus remains concentrated on the middle outcomes while awaiting updated high-resolution runs closer to the event.