Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's overnight low on August 29 will likely fall between 14–16°C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds associated with a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions favor radiational cooling after sunset, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting moisture retention and allowing surface temperatures to drop further if winds remain calm. Trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability (41%) to 11°C or below reflects uncertainty in the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing, while clustered values around 12–14°C capture the narrower range supported by current guidance. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Madrid le 29 août ?
La température la plus basse à Madrid le 29 août ?
11°C or below 45%
13°C 34%
12°C 28%
14°C 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 août 2026
11°C or below
45%
12°C
28%
13°C
34%
14°C
26%
15°C
25%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
15%
19°C
8%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
11°C or below 45%
13°C 34%
12°C 28%
14°C 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 août 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
34%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$5 Vol.
15%
19°C
$5 Vol.
8%
20°C
$5 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's overnight low on August 29 will likely fall between 14–16°C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds associated with a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions favor radiational cooling after sunset, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting moisture retention and allowing surface temperatures to drop further if winds remain calm. Trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability (41%) to 11°C or below reflects uncertainty in the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing, while clustered values around 12–14°C capture the narrower range supported by current guidance. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20Date de fin
29 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's overnight low on August 29 will likely fall between 14–16°C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds associated with a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions favor radiational cooling after sunset, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting moisture retention and allowing surface temperatures to drop further if winds remain calm. Trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability (41%) to 11°C or below reflects uncertainty in the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing, while clustered values around 12–14°C capture the narrower range supported by current guidance. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20Date de fin
29 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's overnight low on August 29 will likely fall between 14–16°C under clear skies and light northeasterly winds associated with a stable high-pressure ridge. These conditions favor radiational cooling after sunset, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting moisture retention and allowing surface temperatures to drop further if winds remain calm. Trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability (41%) to 11°C or below reflects uncertainty in the precise strength of nocturnal cooling and minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing, while clustered values around 12–14°C capture the narrower range supported by current guidance. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS in the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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