The closely matched market odds around 49–51.5% for the 54–57°F bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in San Francisco’s nocturnal minimum on September 19, driven by variable marine layer depth and onshore flow from the cold California Current. NOAA and National Weather Service observations show typical September radiative cooling under clear skies can produce lows near 55°F, but increased low-level moisture or light winds reduce that drop by limiting heat loss, while stronger offshore flow allows further cooling toward 52–54°F. Model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create the narrow probability distribution across adjacent bins, with historical climatology indicating daily lows in this range occur frequently yet remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover or wind speed. Updated observations from the official station will resolve the market once quality-controlled data are released.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à San Francisco le 19 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à San Francisco le 19 septembre ?
56-57°F 99.5%
52-53°F 1.0%
51°F ou moins <1%
54-55°F <1%
$1,105 Vol.
$1,105 Vol.
19 sept. 2026
51°F ou moins
Non
52-53°F
Non
54-55°F
Non
56-57°F
Oui
58-59 °F
Non
60-61°F
Non
62-63°F
Non
64-65°F
Non
66-67°F
Non
68-69°F
Non
70°F ou plus
Non
56-57°F 99.5%
52-53°F 1.0%
51°F ou moins <1%
54-55°F <1%
$1,105 Vol.
$1,105 Vol.
19 sept. 2026
51°F ou moins
$10 Vol.
Non
52-53°F
$15 Vol.
Non
54-55°F
$41 Vol.
Non
56-57°F
$42 Vol.
Oui
58-59 °F
$341 Vol.
Non
60-61°F
$574 Vol.
Non
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
Non
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
Non
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
Non
68-69°F
$41 Vol.
Non
70°F ou plus
$41 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 49–51.5% for the 54–57°F bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in San Francisco’s nocturnal minimum on September 19, driven by variable marine layer depth and onshore flow from the cold California Current. NOAA and National Weather Service observations show typical September radiative cooling under clear skies can produce lows near 55°F, but increased low-level moisture or light winds reduce that drop by limiting heat loss, while stronger offshore flow allows further cooling toward 52–54°F. Model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create the narrow probability distribution across adjacent bins, with historical climatology indicating daily lows in this range occur frequently yet remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover or wind speed. Updated observations from the official station will resolve the market once quality-controlled data are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,105Date de fin
19 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 7:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 49–51.5% for the 54–57°F bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in San Francisco’s nocturnal minimum on September 19, driven by variable marine layer depth and onshore flow from the cold California Current. NOAA and National Weather Service observations show typical September radiative cooling under clear skies can produce lows near 55°F, but increased low-level moisture or light winds reduce that drop by limiting heat loss, while stronger offshore flow allows further cooling toward 52–54°F. Model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create the narrow probability distribution across adjacent bins, with historical climatology indicating daily lows in this range occur frequently yet remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover or wind speed. Updated observations from the official station will resolve the market once quality-controlled data are released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,105Date de fin
19 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 7:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The closely matched market odds around 49–51.5% for the 54–57°F bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in San Francisco’s nocturnal minimum on September 19, driven by variable marine layer depth and onshore flow from the cold California Current. NOAA and National Weather Service observations show typical September radiative cooling under clear skies can produce lows near 55°F, but increased low-level moisture or light winds reduce that drop by limiting heat loss, while stronger offshore flow allows further cooling toward 52–54°F. Model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects create the narrow probability distribution across adjacent bins, with historical climatology indicating daily lows in this range occur frequently yet remain sensitive to small changes in cloud cover or wind speed. Updated observations from the official station will resolve the market once quality-controlled data are released.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
La température la plus basse à San Francisco sera-t-elle comprise entre 56 et 57°F le 20 septembre ?
92%
Oui
La température la plus basse à San Francisco sera-t-elle entre 58-59°F le 21 septembre ?
54%
Oui
La température minimale à San Francisco sera-t-elle comprise entre 58 et 59 °F le 22 septembre ?
40%
Oui
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