**Recent forecasts from multiple models and agencies show the overnight low for Seoul/Incheon on August 23 centering near 24–25°C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (25°C at 44.5%, 24°C at 24%, 26°C at 21%).** Current conditions feature a warm, humid air mass under the strengthening North Pacific high after recent showers, with light winds and partly cloudy skies expected to allow modest radiative cooling overnight but limit drops below ~23°C. Incheon’s coastal location and urban heat island effects further moderate minimums compared to inland spots, consistent with historical late-August baselines around 23–25°C. Short-term model consensus (including recent runs) supports this range, with no strong cold advection or typhoon influence shifting the pattern in the next 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of official guidance and the narrow uncertainty window ahead of resolution, favoring 25°C while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given typical forecast spread in humid subtropical conditions. Updated KMA or ECMWF runs could refine this further before the 23rd.