Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models point to overnight lows in Seoul-Incheon of 23–26°C on August 28, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–26°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated dew points near 23–25°C, and light easterly winds are expected to limit radiational cooling after any daytime showers, keeping the diurnal range modest. Model consensus shows only minor spread in minimum timing and intensity, with precipitation probability around 40–65% potentially adding further insulation. Traders appear to weigh the balance between possible brief clear spells allowing slightly lower readings versus sustained moisture and weak advection holding temperatures higher, with fresh model runs and KMA updates likely to refine these probabilities before resolution.