Recent forecast models from Météo-France and European ensembles indicate a maximum temperature near 27–30°C in Paris on August 26, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge, increasing cloud cover, and moderate southwesterly flow that limits daytime heating. This consensus supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 29°C (39.5 %) and nearby outcomes at 28–30°C, while historical August averages of 24–26°C and the absence of an active heat dome reduce the probability of extremes above 31°C. Short-range model runs show limited spread due to stable synoptic patterns, though small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could adjust the peak by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow, data-supported range rather than climatological outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Paris le 26 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Paris le 26 août ?
29°C 40%
30°C 22%
28°C 22%
27°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
26 août 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
7%
28°C
22%
29°C
40%
30°C
22%
31°C
6%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 40%
30°C 22%
28°C 22%
27°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
26 août 2026
23°C or below
$174 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$54 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$96 Vol.
2%
26°C
$385 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,596 Vol.
7%
28°C
$1,234 Vol.
22%
29°C
$1,243 Vol.
40%
30°C
$577 Vol.
22%
31°C
$23 Vol.
6%
32°C
$106 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$2 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Météo-France and European ensembles indicate a maximum temperature near 27–30°C in Paris on August 26, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge, increasing cloud cover, and moderate southwesterly flow that limits daytime heating. This consensus supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 29°C (39.5 %) and nearby outcomes at 28–30°C, while historical August averages of 24–26°C and the absence of an active heat dome reduce the probability of extremes above 31°C. Short-range model runs show limited spread due to stable synoptic patterns, though small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could adjust the peak by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow, data-supported range rather than climatological outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,490Date de fin
26 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from Météo-France and European ensembles indicate a maximum temperature near 27–30°C in Paris on August 26, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge, increasing cloud cover, and moderate southwesterly flow that limits daytime heating. This consensus supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 29°C (39.5 %) and nearby outcomes at 28–30°C, while historical August averages of 24–26°C and the absence of an active heat dome reduce the probability of extremes above 31°C. Short-range model runs show limited spread due to stable synoptic patterns, though small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could adjust the peak by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow, data-supported range rather than climatological outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,490Date de fin
26 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from Météo-France and European ensembles indicate a maximum temperature near 27–30°C in Paris on August 26, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge, increasing cloud cover, and moderate southwesterly flow that limits daytime heating. This consensus supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 29°C (39.5 %) and nearby outcomes at 28–30°C, while historical August averages of 24–26°C and the absence of an active heat dome reduce the probability of extremes above 31°C. Short-range model runs show limited spread due to stable synoptic patterns, though small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could adjust the peak by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow, data-supported range rather than climatological outliers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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