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icon for Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ?
Politique·CDU

Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ?

icon for Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ?
Politique·CDU

Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ?

Alexander Hoffmann 47%

Thorsten Frei 43%

Nina Warken 43%

Michael Brand 43%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Alexander Hoffmann 47%

Thorsten Frei 43%

Nina Warken 43%

Michael Brand 43%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Alexander Hoffmann

Alexander Hoffmann

$0 Vol.

47%

icon for Thorsten Frei

Thorsten Frei

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Nina Warken

Nina Warken

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Michael Brand

Michael Brand

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Alexander Dobrindt

Alexander Dobrindt

$0 Vol.

42%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for Günter Krings

Günter Krings

$0 Vol.

41%

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.Germany's CDU/CSU bloc operates under Friedrich Merz's firm leadership following his February 2026 re-election as party chair with over 91 percent support and the Union's 2025 federal election victory, which produced a grand coalition government. With no imminent leadership contest or announced succession timeline, trader consensus reflects a wide-open field where numerous Bundestag figures from both CDU and CSU wings hold comparable positioning. Recent parliamentary roles, such as Alexander Hoffmann's appointment as CSU group chair, and other names like Thorsten Frei or Nina Warken appear without decisive momentum. This equilibrium persists absent major catalysts like state election results, internal polling shifts, or explicit signals from Merz on future plans, leaving the outcome sensitive to any emerging frontrunner dynamics within the parliamentary group or party congresses.

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).

This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.

Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.

If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 18, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.
On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.Germany's CDU/CSU bloc operates under Friedrich Merz's firm leadership following his February 2026 re-election as party chair with over 91 percent support and the Union's 2025 federal election victory, which produced a grand coalition government. With no imminent leadership contest or announced succession timeline, trader consensus reflects a wide-open field where numerous Bundestag figures from both CDU and CSU wings hold comparable positioning. Recent parliamentary roles, such as Alexander Hoffmann's appointment as CSU group chair, and other names like Thorsten Frei or Nina Warken appear without decisive momentum. This equilibrium persists absent major catalysts like state election results, internal polling shifts, or explicit signals from Merz on future plans, leaving the outcome sensitive to any emerging frontrunner dynamics within the parliamentary group or party congresses.

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).

This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.

Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.

If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.
Volume
$0
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 18, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

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Questions fréquentes

« Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Alexander Hoffmann » à 47%, suivi de « Thorsten Frei » à 43%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 47¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 47% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 18, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ? » est « Alexander Hoffmann » à 47%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 47% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Thorsten Frei » à 43%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Prochain dirigeant de l'Union allemande (CDU/CSU) ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.