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Politique·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Politique·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.5%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.5%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,169 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$19,925 Vol.

44%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,555 Vol.

37%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,954 Vol.

10%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 Vol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$19,804 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,698 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,047 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$12,124 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,155 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK political developments have positioned Keir Starmer as the frontrunner in trader assessments, driven by sharply negative favorability ratings near -46 and mounting internal Labour pressure following heavy losses in recent local and devolved elections. Speculation over potential leadership challenges or an early general election has amplified perceived risks of his departure before 2027. In Colombia, Gustavo Petro's constitutional ineligibility for reelection and the scheduled May 31, 2026 presidential vote create a firm timeline for transition by August, sustaining his elevated market share. Miguel Díaz-Canel faces comparatively lower odds amid ongoing US diplomatic tensions and domestic economic strains, though no immediate exit mechanism has crystallized. Most other listed leaders show minimal movement due to longer constitutional terms or stable governing majorities, with the slim probability assigned to no departures before 2027 underscoring broad trader expectations of at least one change.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$358,169
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK political developments have positioned Keir Starmer as the frontrunner in trader assessments, driven by sharply negative favorability ratings near -46 and mounting internal Labour pressure following heavy losses in recent local and devolved elections. Speculation over potential leadership challenges or an early general election has amplified perceived risks of his departure before 2027. In Colombia, Gustavo Petro's constitutional ineligibility for reelection and the scheduled May 31, 2026 presidential vote create a firm timeline for transition by August, sustaining his elevated market share. Miguel Díaz-Canel faces comparatively lower odds amid ongoing US diplomatic tensions and domestic economic strains, though no immediate exit mechanism has crystallized. Most other listed leaders show minimal movement due to longer constitutional terms or stable governing majorities, with the slim probability assigned to no departures before 2027 underscoring broad trader expectations of at least one change.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$358,169
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 24 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Starmer - UK PM » à 45%, suivi de « Petro - Colombia President » à 37%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 45¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 45% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) » a généré $358.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 27, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) », parcourez les 24 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) » est « Starmer - UK PM » à 45%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 45% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Petro - Colombia President » à 37%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.