**Trader sentiment on the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026" market favors 4+ days (51.5% implied probability) over 3 days (33.0%) or 2 days (29.5%), driven by OpenAI's recent pattern of stability challenges amid rapid scaling.** OpenAI's status page reports ChatGPT at 99.83% uptime for the March–June 2026 period, yet multiple incidents have already occurred in early June. These include a June 11 disruption affecting free and Go tier users with elevated 431 errors, a June 8 incident limited to Go users, and a brief June 2–3 degradation for ChatGPT Pro users involving "Thinking Failed" errors. Downdetector and community reports also flagged increased issues around June 12. These align with the market's definition of calendar days experiencing any "Partial/Full Outage" incident once resolved. Primary drivers include surging demand on large language models, infrastructure strain from expanded free-tier access, and iterative model updates (such as GPT-5 variants) that can introduce temporary availability or error-rate spikes. Historical precedent shows OpenAI experiencing several such events per month during high-growth phases, even with overall strong uptime. With roughly half of June remaining and no major regulatory or capacity announcements easing pressure, traders see elevated risk of additional incidents pushing the total to 4 or more days. The near-zero probability for fewer than 2 days reflects this ongoing volatility in the AI chatbot platform.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4+ 52%
3 24%
2 21%
<2 <1%
$10,307 Vol.
$10,307 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<2
<1%
2
30%
3
28%
4+
52%
4+ 52%
3 24%
2 21%
<2 <1%
$10,307 Vol.
$10,307 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<2
$5,707 Vol.
<1%
2
$650 Vol.
30%
3
$432 Vol.
28%
4+
$3,518 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader sentiment on the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026" market favors 4+ days (51.5% implied probability) over 3 days (33.0%) or 2 days (29.5%), driven by OpenAI's recent pattern of stability challenges amid rapid scaling.**
OpenAI's status page reports ChatGPT at 99.83% uptime for the March–June 2026 period, yet multiple incidents have already occurred in early June. These include a June 11 disruption affecting free and Go tier users with elevated 431 errors, a June 8 incident limited to Go users, and a brief June 2–3 degradation for ChatGPT Pro users involving "Thinking Failed" errors. Downdetector and community reports also flagged increased issues around June 12. These align with the market's definition of calendar days experiencing any "Partial/Full Outage" incident once resolved.
Primary drivers include surging demand on large language models, infrastructure strain from expanded free-tier access, and iterative model updates (such as GPT-5 variants) that can introduce temporary availability or error-rate spikes. Historical precedent shows OpenAI experiencing several such events per month during high-growth phases, even with overall strong uptime. With roughly half of June remaining and no major regulatory or capacity announcements easing pressure, traders see elevated risk of additional incidents pushing the total to 4 or more days. The near-zero probability for fewer than 2 days reflects this ongoing volatility in the AI chatbot platform.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,307Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader sentiment on the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026" market favors 4+ days (51.5% implied probability) over 3 days (33.0%) or 2 days (29.5%), driven by OpenAI's recent pattern of stability challenges amid rapid scaling.**
OpenAI's status page reports ChatGPT at 99.83% uptime for the March–June 2026 period, yet multiple incidents have already occurred in early June. These include a June 11 disruption affecting free and Go tier users with elevated 431 errors, a June 8 incident limited to Go users, and a brief June 2–3 degradation for ChatGPT Pro users involving "Thinking Failed" errors. Downdetector and community reports also flagged increased issues around June 12. These align with the market's definition of calendar days experiencing any "Partial/Full Outage" incident once resolved.
Primary drivers include surging demand on large language models, infrastructure strain from expanded free-tier access, and iterative model updates (such as GPT-5 variants) that can introduce temporary availability or error-rate spikes. Historical precedent shows OpenAI experiencing several such events per month during high-growth phases, even with overall strong uptime. With roughly half of June remaining and no major regulatory or capacity announcements easing pressure, traders see elevated risk of additional incidents pushing the total to 4 or more days. The near-zero probability for fewer than 2 days reflects this ongoing volatility in the AI chatbot platform.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,307Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment on the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026" market favors 4+ days (51.5% implied probability) over 3 days (33.0%) or 2 days (29.5%), driven by OpenAI's recent pattern of stability challenges amid rapid scaling.** OpenAI's status page reports ChatGPT at 99.83% uptime for the March–June 2026 period, yet multiple incidents have already occurred in early June. These include a June 11 disruption affecting free and Go tier users with elevated 431 errors, a June 8 incident limited to Go users, and a brief June 2–3 degradation for ChatGPT Pro users involving "Thinking Failed" errors. Downdetector and community reports also flagged increased issues around June 12. These align with the market's definition of calendar days experiencing any "Partial/Full Outage" incident once resolved. Primary drivers include surging demand on large language models, infrastructure strain from expanded free-tier access, and iterative model updates (such as GPT-5 variants) that can introduce temporary availability or error-rate spikes. Historical precedent shows OpenAI experiencing several such events per month during high-growth phases, even with overall strong uptime. With roughly half of June remaining and no major regulatory or capacity announcements easing pressure, traders see elevated risk of additional incidents pushing the total to 4 or more days. The near-zero probability for fewer than 2 days reflects this ongoing volatility in the AI chatbot platform.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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