Ongoing deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations over Tehran’s refusal to make upfront concessions on uranium enrichment and dismantle key infrastructure has driven trader consensus toward no comprehensive deal by May 31. Recent rounds, including indirect talks mediated by Oman, stalled when Iran proposed deferring nuclear limits until after a permanent ceasefire, clashing with US demands for immediate verifiable restrictions, snap inspections, and a long-term moratorium on enrichment activities. President Trump’s public statements rejecting Iranian offers and warning that patience is running out have reinforced perceptions of wide gaps, consistent with historical patterns where similar impasses in past diplomacy produced no swift breakthroughs. While a last-minute diplomatic shift or concession on sanctions relief could still alter the trajectory before the deadline, current positions and the short remaining timeline make resolution improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$673,615 Vol.
$673,615 Vol.
31 mai 2026
$673,615 Vol.
$673,615 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations over Tehran’s refusal to make upfront concessions on uranium enrichment and dismantle key infrastructure has driven trader consensus toward no comprehensive deal by May 31. Recent rounds, including indirect talks mediated by Oman, stalled when Iran proposed deferring nuclear limits until after a permanent ceasefire, clashing with US demands for immediate verifiable restrictions, snap inspections, and a long-term moratorium on enrichment activities. President Trump’s public statements rejecting Iranian offers and warning that patience is running out have reinforced perceptions of wide gaps, consistent with historical patterns where similar impasses in past diplomacy produced no swift breakthroughs. While a last-minute diplomatic shift or concession on sanctions relief could still alter the trajectory before the deadline, current positions and the short remaining timeline make resolution improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$673,615Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations over Tehran’s refusal to make upfront concessions on uranium enrichment and dismantle key infrastructure has driven trader consensus toward no comprehensive deal by May 31. Recent rounds, including indirect talks mediated by Oman, stalled when Iran proposed deferring nuclear limits until after a permanent ceasefire, clashing with US demands for immediate verifiable restrictions, snap inspections, and a long-term moratorium on enrichment activities. President Trump’s public statements rejecting Iranian offers and warning that patience is running out have reinforced perceptions of wide gaps, consistent with historical patterns where similar impasses in past diplomacy produced no swift breakthroughs. While a last-minute diplomatic shift or concession on sanctions relief could still alter the trajectory before the deadline, current positions and the short remaining timeline make resolution improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$673,615Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing deadlock in US-Iran nuclear negotiations over Tehran’s refusal to make upfront concessions on uranium enrichment and dismantle key infrastructure has driven trader consensus toward no comprehensive deal by May 31. Recent rounds, including indirect talks mediated by Oman, stalled when Iran proposed deferring nuclear limits until after a permanent ceasefire, clashing with US demands for immediate verifiable restrictions, snap inspections, and a long-term moratorium on enrichment activities. President Trump’s public statements rejecting Iranian offers and warning that patience is running out have reinforced perceptions of wide gaps, consistent with historical patterns where similar impasses in past diplomacy produced no swift breakthroughs. While a last-minute diplomatic shift or concession on sanctions relief could still alter the trajectory before the deadline, current positions and the short remaining timeline make resolution improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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