The U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion in March per the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis data, as imports surged 2.3% to $381.2 billion—driven by AI capital goods and consumer demand—outpacing 2% export growth to $320.9 billion, pausing an earlier Q1 narrowing trend. Trader consensus clusters tightly around an 800–900B (38.5%) or 900B–1T (36%) full-year outcome, reflecting uncertainty over Trump administration tariffs' mixed effects: initial front-loading inflated early deficits like January's record, while recent moderation hints at contraction, yet annualized paces near 741B could accelerate with sustained growth. Key separators include April BEA data, new tariff escalations, China/EU negotiations, dollar fluctuations, or Federal Reserve policy shifts impacting import competitiveness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$20,974 Vol.
$20,974 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
7%
500–600 milliards
6%
600–700 milliards
5%
700–800 milliards
11%
800–900 milliards
47%
900 Md – 1 Bn
36%
1T–1,1T
9%
1,1 T+
5%
$20,974 Vol.
$20,974 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
$16,636 Vol.
7%
500–600 milliards
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700 milliards
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800 milliards
$455 Vol.
11%
800–900 milliards
$1,008 Vol.
47%
900 Md – 1 Bn
$961 Vol.
36%
1T–1,1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1,1 T+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.The U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion in March per the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis data, as imports surged 2.3% to $381.2 billion—driven by AI capital goods and consumer demand—outpacing 2% export growth to $320.9 billion, pausing an earlier Q1 narrowing trend. Trader consensus clusters tightly around an 800–900B (38.5%) or 900B–1T (36%) full-year outcome, reflecting uncertainty over Trump administration tariffs' mixed effects: initial front-loading inflated early deficits like January's record, while recent moderation hints at contraction, yet annualized paces near 741B could accelerate with sustained growth. Key separators include April BEA data, new tariff escalations, China/EU negotiations, dollar fluctuations, or Federal Reserve policy shifts impacting import competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,974Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.The U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion in March per the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis data, as imports surged 2.3% to $381.2 billion—driven by AI capital goods and consumer demand—outpacing 2% export growth to $320.9 billion, pausing an earlier Q1 narrowing trend. Trader consensus clusters tightly around an 800–900B (38.5%) or 900B–1T (36%) full-year outcome, reflecting uncertainty over Trump administration tariffs' mixed effects: initial front-loading inflated early deficits like January's record, while recent moderation hints at contraction, yet annualized paces near 741B could accelerate with sustained growth. Key separators include April BEA data, new tariff escalations, China/EU negotiations, dollar fluctuations, or Federal Reserve policy shifts impacting import competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$20,974Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion in March per the latest Bureau of Economic Analysis data, as imports surged 2.3% to $381.2 billion—driven by AI capital goods and consumer demand—outpacing 2% export growth to $320.9 billion, pausing an earlier Q1 narrowing trend. Trader consensus clusters tightly around an 800–900B (38.5%) or 900B–1T (36%) full-year outcome, reflecting uncertainty over Trump administration tariffs' mixed effects: initial front-loading inflated early deficits like January's record, while recent moderation hints at contraction, yet annualized paces near 741B could accelerate with sustained growth. Key separators include April BEA data, new tariff escalations, China/EU negotiations, dollar fluctuations, or Federal Reserve policy shifts impacting import competitiveness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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