Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371.2 billion—down sharply from $560.5 billion a year earlier—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods after 2025 tariff front-loading. Persistent tariff effects, slower import growth, and modest export gains in services are compressing the annual total toward the $700–900 billion range. Market-implied odds favor the 800–900 billion bracket as traders weigh ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rebound in import demand against the current trajectory. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the deficit stabilizes near recent lows or widens with economic momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
3%
500–600 milliards
5%
600–700 milliards
9%
700–800 milliards
30%
800–900 milliards
42%
900 Md – 1 Bn
13%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 T+
6%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
28 févr. 2027
<500 Md$
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600 milliards
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700 milliards
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800 milliards
$670 Vol.
30%
800–900 milliards
$1,519 Vol.
42%
900 Md – 1 Bn
$1,397 Vol.
13%
1T–1,1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1,1 T+
$1,119 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371.2 billion—down sharply from $560.5 billion a year earlier—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods after 2025 tariff front-loading. Persistent tariff effects, slower import growth, and modest export gains in services are compressing the annual total toward the $700–900 billion range. Market-implied odds favor the 800–900 billion bracket as traders weigh ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rebound in import demand against the current trajectory. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the deficit stabilizes near recent lows or widens with economic momentum.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371.2 billion—down sharply from $560.5 billion a year earlier—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods after 2025 tariff front-loading. Persistent tariff effects, slower import growth, and modest export gains in services are compressing the annual total toward the $700–900 billion range. Market-implied odds favor the 800–900 billion bracket as traders weigh ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rebound in import demand against the current trajectory. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the deficit stabilizes near recent lows or widens with economic momentum.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009Date de fin
28 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371.2 billion—down sharply from $560.5 billion a year earlier—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods after 2025 tariff front-loading. Persistent tariff effects, slower import growth, and modest export gains in services are compressing the annual total toward the $700–900 billion range. Market-implied odds favor the 800–900 billion bracket as traders weigh ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rebound in import demand against the current trajectory. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the deficit stabilizes near recent lows or widens with economic momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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