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icon for Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ?
Climat Et Science·Météo

Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ?

icon for Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ?
Climat Et Science·Météo

Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ?

Dolly 41%

Fay 26%

Edouard 24%

Isaias 6.8%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Dolly 41%

Fay 26%

Edouard 24%

Isaias 6.8%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Cristobal

$1,667 Vol.

2%

Dolly

$383 Vol.

41%

Edouard

$1,073 Vol.

24%

Fay

$514 Vol.

26%

Gonzalo

$472 Vol.

5%

Hanna

$98 Vol.

5%

Isaias

$350 Vol.

7%

Joséphine

$55 Vol.

5%

Kyle

$94 Vol.

3%

Leah

$59 Vol.

3%

Marco

$111 Vol.

5%

Nana

$51 Vol.

5%

Omar

$67 Vol.

5%

Paulette

$71 Vol.

5%

René

$63 Vol.

5%

Sally

$131 Vol.

3%

Teddy

$63 Vol.

5%

Vicky

$90 Vol.

4%

Wilfred

$118 Vol.

4%

Autre

$63 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Below-normal activity has kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through mid-August despite three early tropical storms, leaving the first hurricane likely to form from the next system onward amid a 75% chance of a below-normal season per the latest NOAA update. Steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and wind shear tied to emerging El Niño conditions continue to suppress rapid intensification, positioning Dolly—the next name on the list—as the consensus frontrunner at 41% implied probability while Edouard and Fay trail at 24% and 21.5%. Traders are watching the climatological peak in September for model consensus shifts and any late-August disturbances that could reach the 74-knot threshold first.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$5,595
Date de fin
2 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. Below-normal activity has kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through mid-August despite three early tropical storms, leaving the first hurricane likely to form from the next system onward amid a 75% chance of a below-normal season per the latest NOAA update. Steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and wind shear tied to emerging El Niño conditions continue to suppress rapid intensification, positioning Dolly—the next name on the list—as the consensus frontrunner at 41% implied probability while Edouard and Fay trail at 24% and 21.5%. Traders are watching the climatological peak in September for model consensus shifts and any late-August disturbances that could reach the 74-knot threshold first.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$5,595
Date de fin
2 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.

Connexes

icon for Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

38%
icon for Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera-t-il en août 2026 ?

Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera-t-il en août 2026 ?

71%
Oui
icon for Un ouragan touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis en août ?

Un ouragan touchera-t-il terre aux États-Unis en août ?

11%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 20 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Dolly » à 41%, suivi de « Fay » à 26%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 41¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 41% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 24, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ? », parcourez les 20 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ? » est « Dolly » à 41%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 41% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Fay » à 26%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quel sera le nom du premier ouragan dans l'Atlantique pour la saison des ouragans 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.