Market prices for Fed rate hitting 3.25% decline amid cautious Fed outlook

↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%22%

By early May 2026, market prices for the Fed rate hitting 3.25% had declined significantly from earlier highs, reflecting growing market skepticism about aggressive rate cuts given mixed economic data and ongoing political challenges to Fed independence.

Mortgage rates edge higher as Fed rate‑cut expectations wane

↑ 4.25% rises to 9%2%

The average 30‑year mortgage rate rose slightly, reflecting market perception that the Fed may hold rates steady longer, which modestly increased the price of the rare upward‑rate outcome.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid Fed rate cut expectations

↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%21%

Mortgage rates remained near their lowest levels since 2024, reflecting market anticipation of Fed rate cuts. However, persistent inflation and economic data suggested the Fed might hold rates steady, influencing market pricing of rate outcomes.

Fed Chair Powell ends DOJ criminal investigation, reaffirms Fed independence

↓ 3.25% drops to 32%12%

The Department of Justice ended its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on economic conditions. This development helped stabilize market expectations and reduced political pressure on the Fed's rate decisions.

Fed releases quarterly economic projections showing modest inflation decline

↓ 2.25% dips to 8%3%

The projections softened expectations of aggressive easing, causing the final drop in the "↓ 2.25%" contract to its endpoint.

US inflation gauge rises to 2.8% in November, keeping pressure on the Fed

↓ 3.0% drops to 16%7%

Higher‑than‑expected inflation reduced expectations of near‑term cuts, dragging the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts lower.

Fed minutes show split on possible rate hike later in year

↓ 2.5% dips to 7%2%

April meeting minutes indicated a faction within the Fed considering a future rate increase if inflation remains above target, curbing optimism for additional cuts.

Federal prosecutors attempt unannounced visit to Fed headquarters construction site

The surprise visit underscored the administration’s aggressive stance toward the Fed, reinforcing market fears of political meddling and sustaining pressure for lower rates.

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade, pushing oil prices higher

↑ 4.25% rises to 8%3%

Iran fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating geopolitical tensions and causing oil prices to surge. Higher oil prices increased inflation concerns, reducing market expectations for Fed rate cuts and even raising the possibility of rate hikes.

Fed Chair Powell attends Supreme Court oral argument on Cook case

↑ 4.25% dips to 8%1%

Powell’s presence underscored the political stakes, briefly reviving concerns about Fed independence and lifting the "↑ 4.25%" contract.

Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate on DOJ investigation

↓ 2.5% plunges to 8%49%

Powell’s testimony highlighted ongoing political battles, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would avoid further cuts, which pushed prices of lower‑rate outcomes down further.

Mortgage rates hold near 2025 lows amid steady Fed policy

Mortgage rates remained near their 2025 lows, reflecting market expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time, influenced by stable inflation and economic data, which supported lower probabilities for deeper rate cuts.

US inflation data shows prices tick up, reducing urgency for Fed rate cuts

↓ 3.0% dips to 22%3%

November inflation data showed a slight increase in consumer prices, suggesting inflation remains above target and reducing market expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, impacting the pricing of lower rate outcomes.

Mortgage rates edge higher as 10‑year Treasury yields rise

↑ 4.25% dips to 6%2%

Freddie Mac reported a slight increase in 30‑year mortgage rates, reflecting higher Treasury yields and reducing market expectations for further Fed easing.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% after a divided vote

↓ 2.5% drops to 20%13%

A hold on rates reduced optimism for further cuts, pulling the "↓ 2.5%" and "↓ 2.25%" contracts down toward their lows.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% drops to 66%5%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. This political uncertainty affected market confidence in aggressive rate cuts, contributing to lower prices for rate cut outcomes.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid political and legal pressure

Analysts projected the Fed would hold rates steady at its April meeting, reflecting uncertainty from ongoing investigations and the Supreme Court case, which steadied the market and slightly lifted the higher‑rate outcome.

Market reacts to mixed economic data and Fed cautious stance

↓ 3.25% plunges to 54%21%

Market prices for the Fed rate hitting 3.25% dropped sharply after mixed economic data and Fed signals of a cautious approach to further rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about the timing and extent of future policy moves.

Trump announces Kevin Warsh as nominee for Federal Reserve chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 63%3%

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy. Warsh faced challenges balancing Fed independence with Trump’s demands for lower rates, adding uncertainty to market expectations.

Fed officials warn of potential rate hike if inflation stalls

↓ 3.0% drops to 57%8%

Comments about a possible future hike introduced upside risk, causing a sharp drop in prices for the downward‑rate contracts as traders reassessed the ceiling of the target range.

Supreme Court leans toward letting Cook stay on board

↑ 4.25% dips to 7%2%

Justices appeared inclined to allow Governor Lisa Cook to remain, easing political pressure on the Fed and lowering the perceived risk of a Trump‑driven rate‑cut agenda.

Fed policymakers vote to keep rates unchanged amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 80%12%

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted 10-2 to maintain interest rates, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target despite a slowing labor market. This decision contributed to a decline in market expectations for deeper rate cuts in 2026.

Supreme Court hears case on Fed governor firing, raising concerns over Fed independence

↓ 3.25% plunges to 65%25%

The Supreme Court considered President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a move seen as threatening the Fed's independence. This legal uncertainty added political risk to Fed policy decisions and influenced market expectations about rate stability.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% drops to 81%11%

The December jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, despite previous Fed rate cuts aimed at boosting employment. This data added uncertainty about the need for further rate cuts, influencing market prices downward for lower rate outcomes.

Fed keeps rate steady at 3.6% after January meeting

↓ 3.0% plunges to 55%15%

The FOMC voted 10‑2 to hold the target range unchanged, reinforcing a pause in policy and reducing the probability of further cuts in the short term.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before additional cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 25%14%

The minutes signaled a pause in easing, causing a sharp decline in the "↓ 2.75%" contract price.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts

The released minutes indicated a divided committee, with many members reluctant to cut rates further until inflation eases, dampening expectations of additional cuts and causing a modest rebound in higher‑rate outcome prices.

US jobs report shows slowing hiring, complicating Fed rate outlook

↓ 3.25% plunges to 64%26%

The US added fewer jobs than expected in December, with unemployment rising slightly, indicating a weakening labor market. This data complicated the Fed's dual mandate and influenced market expectations for possible rate cuts, though inflation concerns remained.

Fed keeps rates unchanged at March meeting amid inflation concerns

↓ 2.75% drops to 25%13%

A decision to hold rates steady after three cuts reinforced expectations that the lower bound of the target range would remain near 3.6%, keeping downward‑rate outcomes attractive.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%2%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials prefer to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach that tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions in 2026.

Fed minutes reveal divided views on further rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 92%1%

Minutes from the January FOMC meeting showed a split among Fed officials, with some favoring additional cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady. This division contributed to market uncertainty and declining prices for lower rate outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%12%

Minutes from the January meeting showed most Fed officials prefer to see further inflation decline before supporting additional rate cuts, indicating a cautious stance that tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions.

January jobs report shows 130,000 jobs added, unemployment falls to 4.3%

↓ 3.0% drops to 71%11%

Stronger labor market data reduced urgency for further cuts, pushing the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts lower.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% plunges to 66%24%

Minutes from the January meeting showed most Fed officials want to see further inflation decline before supporting more rate cuts, with some favoring a longer pause or even signaling potential rate hikes if inflation remains high. This tempered market expectations for aggressive rate reductions.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before further cuts

↓ 3.25% jumps to 65%8%

The minutes indicated a cautious stance, suggesting limited near‑term cuts and reinforcing market belief that rates would stay low for a while, supporting downward‑rate bets.

Fed minutes show most officials want more inflation progress before cuts

↓ 2.75% drops to 39%8%

January meeting minutes revealed that a majority of Fed participants preferred to wait for further inflation declines before implementing additional cuts, tempering expectations for near‑term easing.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed chair

Trump’s nomination of Warsh, a known Trump ally, signaled a potential shift toward more aggressive rate cuts, prompting the market to further price in lower‑rate outcomes.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed Chair

↑ 4.25% drops to 45%5%

Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his choice to replace Jerome Powell, signaling a push for lower rates and raising concerns about Fed independence, which pushed down expectations for higher rate outcomes.

Fed minutes reveal majority want more inflation progress before rate cuts

↓ 3.25% dips to 91%1%

Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed most officials preferred to hold rates steady until inflation falls further, indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts. This tempered market expectations for significant rate decreases soon.

Kevin Warsh nominated by President Trump as next Federal Reserve Chair

President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, raising market uncertainty due to Warsh's reputation as a rate hawk but recent support for lower rates. The nomination highlighted the political pressures on the Fed and concerns about maintaining its independence, influencing market expectations for future rate decisions.

Fed holds interest rates steady amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%2%

The Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged at about 3.6% after three consecutive cuts in 2025, reflecting caution amid mixed economic signals and political pressures. This pause influenced market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further cuts in the near term.

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair

↓ 1.25% rises to 12%3%

President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to replace Powell, signaling a likely shift toward more aggressive rate cuts and prompting traders to reassess lower‑rate outcomes.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents

↓ 1.75% drops to 12%7%

Bessent’s proposal signaled a possible shift in Fed governance that could favor a more politically aligned board, increasing market expectations of future rate cuts.

Supreme Court hears arguments on the attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↑ 4.25% drops to 9%5%

The high‑profile case heightened uncertainty about Fed independence, prompting a pullback in rate‑cut expectations and lowering the "↑ 4.25%" contract.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposes residency rule for regional Fed presidents

Bessent’s proposal to require regional Fed presidents to live in their districts could increase White House influence over the Fed, reinforcing market expectations of a more dovish stance and further price declines for lower‑rate outcomes.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair

↓ 3.25% jumps to 94%5%

Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Fed Chair, signaling potential shifts in Fed policy towards lower interest rates, but Warsh faces challenges balancing Fed independence, market expectations, and Trump’s demands, contributing to market volatility.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%6%

At the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed held rates unchanged at about 3.6%, signaling a pause to assess economic data and inflation trends. This decision reflected the Fed's cautious approach and contributed to market expectations that rates might not fall significantly soon.

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged amid economic uncertainty

↓ 3.25% drops to 89%5%

Ahead of the January FOMC meeting, the Fed signaled it would likely keep rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach given mixed economic data and political pressures. This tempered market expectations for further rate cuts, contributing to a decline in prices for lower rate outcomes.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be Fed Chair

↓ 2.5% drops to 33%6%

The nomination raised expectations of a more dovish chair, briefly lifting the "↓ 2.5%" and "↓ 2.25%" contracts before market participants reassessed the political risk.

Fed holds interest rates steady amid inflation and job market uncertainty

At the January FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at about 3.6%, reflecting a balance between persistent inflation and signs of a stabilizing labor market. Chair Powell indicated the Fed would wait to assess economic developments before making further moves, dampening expectations for immediate rate cuts.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6%, signaling wait-and-see approach

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

At the January 27-28 meeting, the Fed held rates unchanged after three cuts in 2025, signaling a cautious approach to further changes amid mixed economic data. This decision reflected the committee's division and the need for more inflation progress before additional cuts, influencing market pricing downward for rate cuts.

Fed keeps rates steady at 3.6% amid mixed data

↑ 4.25% drops to 40%5%

The FOMC voted to hold the target rate steady after recent job and inflation reports, reducing optimism for further cuts and causing a modest rise in the probability of a higher rate outcome.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%4%

The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump could remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a case seen as pivotal for the Fed’s independence. The court’s decision was expected to influence market confidence in the Fed’s ability to set rates free from political pressure.

Supreme Court oral argument on Lisa Cook firing case

↓ 2.0% dips to 12%2%

The argument highlighted the potential for a Trump‑appointed Fed chair, raising speculation of more aggressive rate cuts, which further depressed the market for lower‑rate outcomes.

Supreme Court hears case on President’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

The high court’s oral arguments on the legality of removing Governor Cook highlighted the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, raising the probability of a more politically driven rate policy and influencing market sentiment toward lower rates.

Justice Department subpoenas Fed over renovation testimony

↓ 2.0% dips to 10%3%

The DOJ served subpoenas to the Federal Reserve related to Chair Powell’s testimony on a $2.5 billion building renovation, intensifying the political clash and prompting market fears of rate‑cut pressure from the White House.

Trump announces Kevin Warsh as nominee for next Federal Reserve Chair

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

President Trump selected Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor with a reputation as an interest-rate hawk who recently supported lower rates, to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh's nomination introduced uncertainty about future rate policy amid political and Senate scrutiny.

Supreme Court hears case on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook

↓ 3.25% dips to 86%4%

The Supreme Court considered whether President Trump can remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a case with significant implications for the Fed's independence and political control over interest rate policy, increasing market concerns about potential political interference.

Fed Chair Powell publicly rebukes DOJ investigation as political pressure

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Powell issued a video statement condemning the DOJ investigation as a pretext to undermine the Fed's independence and pressure it to cut rates. This public defense aimed to reassure markets of the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions despite political attacks.

Central bankers worldwide express solidarity with Fed Chair Powell

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Top central bankers from major economies publicly supported Powell and emphasized the importance of central bank independence, reinforcing confidence in the Fed's autonomy amid political pressures and the DOJ probe.

Fed minutes reveal split over December rate cut

↓ 3.0% plunges to 55%15%

The released minutes showed a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point cut in December, highlighting dissent among officials and increasing uncertainty about future cuts, which drove the market lower for the 3%‑3.25% outcomes.

Fed Chair Powell says DOJ subpoenas are pretext to force rate cuts

Powell released a video statement accusing the Justice Department of using criminal subpoenas to pressure the Fed into cutting rates, reinforcing concerns about political interference and increasing expectations of further rate reductions.

DOJ launches criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

↓ 3.25% rises to 95%1%

Federal prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony about the Fed's building renovations. Powell condemned the probe as politically motivated to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, escalating tensions and impacting market confidence in Fed independence.

Fed Chair Powell condemns DOJ subpoenas as political pretexts

↓ 3.25% dips to 93%1%

Powell’s public rebuke heightened concerns about political pressure on the Fed, causing a sell‑off in rate‑cut bets and driving the "↓ 3.25%" price down sharply.

Fed Chair Powell releases video condemning DOJ subpoenas as political pretext

↓ 2.25% plunges to 39%18%

Powell’s public defense of Fed independence suggested resistance to political pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would stay on hold rather than cut further, nudging prices lower.

Fed Chair Powell condemns Justice Department subpoenas as political pressure

Fed Chair Jerome Powell publicly stated that subpoenas from the Justice Department were 'pretexts' aimed at forcing the Fed to cut rates, underscoring political tensions and the Fed's commitment to economic-based decisions. This statement reassured markets about Fed independence, influencing rate cut expectations and market prices.

Powell attends Supreme Court oral argument on Cook case

↓ 2.25% drops to 24%6%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared at the Supreme Court as it heard arguments on President Trump’s attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook, underscoring political pressure on the Fed and raising doubts about future policy independence.

Fed cuts rates for the third time in 2025, lowering the target to about 3.6%

↓ 3.0% jumps to 89%5%

A third consecutive quarter‑point cut was announced, reinforcing expectations of further easing and pushing the "↓ 3.0%" and "↓ 2.75%" contracts higher.

Federal government shutdown delays data releases

↓ 2.5% drops to 45%7%

A six‑week shutdown postponed key labor and inflation data, creating uncertainty that weighed on market expectations for further rate reductions.

Core CPI rises to 2.8% in November

↓ 2.75% drops to 47%8%

The Commerce Department reported core consumer‑price inflation at 2.8% YoY, above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains sticky and reducing pressure for aggressive cuts.

Fed announces quarter‑point rate cut to 3.6% at December meeting

↓ 2.5% plunges to 57%32%

The Fed officially cut its key rate by a quarter point, confirming market expectations of lower rates and driving down prices for all downward‑rate outcomes.

Supreme Court hears arguments on Trump’s attempt to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook

↓ 2.75% jumps to 55%9%

The high‑court hearing underscored the administration’s push to reshape the Fed, increasing speculation that a Trump‑friendly chair could lower rates sharply.

Fed minutes reveal split over further cuts

↓ 3.0% drops to 82%7%

Minutes from the December meeting showed two officials voted to keep rates unchanged and one favored a larger half‑point cut, highlighting uncertainty about additional easing and dampening expectations for further declines.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by quarter point amid internal dissent

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, but the decision was contentious with a 9-3 vote and some officials dissenting. This highlighted uncertainty about the balance between inflation and labor market weakness, influencing market expectations for future rate moves.

Fed cuts interest rate by quarter point amid labor market concerns

↓ 3.25% dips to 89%1%

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.25% for the third time in 2025, lowering it to about 3.6%, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite ongoing inflation. The decision was marked by notable dissent, highlighting uncertainty within the Fed about the appropriate policy path.

Fed cuts key rate by a quarter‑point at December meeting

↓ 3.25% dips to 90%4%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to about 3.6 %, the lowest in nearly three years, signaling a willingness to ease monetary policy.

Fed cuts key rate by a quarter point at December meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9‑3 to cut the target federal funds rate to about 3.6%, the first cut of the year, signaling a move toward lower rates and prompting market participants to price in a higher chance of the lower‑rate outcomes.

Federal Reserve cuts key interest rate by quarter point amid economic concerns

↓ 3.25% rises to 92%3%

At the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 0.25% to about 3.6%, the third cut in 2025, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite inflation remaining above target. The decision was split 9-3, highlighting internal committee divisions and influencing market expectations for future rate cuts.

Fed minutes reveal a 9‑3 vote for a quarter‑point rate cut to about 3.6%

↓ 3.25% jumps to 90%9%

The released minutes from the Dec 9‑10 FOMC meeting showed a narrow majority supporting a cut, signaling a higher probability of lower rates and boosting the "↓ 3.25%" contract.

Justice Department subpoenas Fed over renovation investigation

↓ 3.0% jumps to 89%5%

The DOJ served subpoenas to the Fed, intensifying political pressure on the central bank and prompting market participants to anticipate a more dovish stance to protect the Fed’s independence.

Fed officials signal possible rate cut in upcoming December meeting

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Minutes from the Fed's November meeting indicated a close vote on a quarter‑point cut, raising expectations that the target rate could fall to around 3.6%, which boosted bets on lower rate outcomes.

Fed officials signal divided views on further rate cuts amid inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed a split among officials, with some favoring additional rate cuts if inflation declines, while others preferred holding rates steady due to persistent inflation and a stabilizing job market. This division contributed to fluctuating market expectations for rate cuts at various levels.