Persistent El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in 2026, contributing to NOAA’s updated below-normal seasonal forecast of just 2–6 hurricanes overall. As of mid-August, only three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) have formed, all remaining below hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with the National Hurricane Center reporting no disturbances likely to develop through at least August 23. This quiet pattern, reinforced by recent model runs and the absence of favorable steering or shear conditions, underpins the market’s strong 71% implied probability that August passes without the season’s first hurricane.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuand le premier ouragan se formera-t-il dans l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
Quand le premier ouragan se formera-t-il dans l'Atlantique en 2026 ?
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en août 2026 71%
27 août au 31 août 2026 24%
22 août au 26 août 2026 7%
17 au 21 août 2026 1.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
13 au 16 août 2026
<1%
17 au 21 août 2026
1%
22 août au 26 août 2026
7%
27 août au 31 août 2026
20%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en août 2026
71%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en août 2026 71%
27 août au 31 août 2026 24%
22 août au 26 août 2026 7%
17 au 21 août 2026 1.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
13 au 16 août 2026
$427 Vol.
<1%
17 au 21 août 2026
$167 Vol.
1%
22 août au 26 août 2026
$152 Vol.
7%
27 août au 31 août 2026
$753 Vol.
20%
Aucun ouragan atlantique ne se formera en août 2026
$1,011 Vol.
71%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Persistent El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in 2026, contributing to NOAA’s updated below-normal seasonal forecast of just 2–6 hurricanes overall. As of mid-August, only three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) have formed, all remaining below hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with the National Hurricane Center reporting no disturbances likely to develop through at least August 23. This quiet pattern, reinforced by recent model runs and the absence of favorable steering or shear conditions, underpins the market’s strong 71% implied probability that August passes without the season’s first hurricane.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$2,510Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Persistent El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in 2026, contributing to NOAA’s updated below-normal seasonal forecast of just 2–6 hurricanes overall. As of mid-August, only three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) have formed, all remaining below hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with the National Hurricane Center reporting no disturbances likely to develop through at least August 23. This quiet pattern, reinforced by recent model runs and the absence of favorable steering or shear conditions, underpins the market’s strong 71% implied probability that August passes without the season’s first hurricane.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$2,510Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent El Niño conditions continue to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in 2026, contributing to NOAA’s updated below-normal seasonal forecast of just 2–6 hurricanes overall. As of mid-August, only three named storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) have formed, all remaining below hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with the National Hurricane Center reporting no disturbances likely to develop through at least August 23. This quiet pattern, reinforced by recent model runs and the absence of favorable steering or shear conditions, underpins the market’s strong 71% implied probability that August passes without the season’s first hurricane.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes