Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market due to its recent Claude model iterations demonstrating superior performance on style-controlled generation benchmarks, outpacing competitors in consistency and creative adherence under constrained prompts. Google follows at 23.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and its integration across search and cloud platforms, though traders view these as incremental rather than breakthrough gains. OpenAI and xAI trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively amid ongoing development cycles, with market consensus reflecting Anthropic’s edge in targeted capability demonstrations through mid-May 2026. Upcoming leaderboards and any surprise releases before June 30 could still shift positioning, as AI model rankings remain sensitive to new evaluation criteria and scaling improvements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 67%
Google 23%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 Vol.
$1,457,416 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Anthropic
67%
23%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Microsoft
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 23%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 Vol.
$1,457,416 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Anthropic
$30,607 Vol.
67%
$18,768 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$49,364 Vol.
5%
xAI
$14,994 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,408 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,551 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,184 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,936 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,912 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,394 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,733 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,379 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,849 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,651 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,686 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market due to its recent Claude model iterations demonstrating superior performance on style-controlled generation benchmarks, outpacing competitors in consistency and creative adherence under constrained prompts. Google follows at 23.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and its integration across search and cloud platforms, though traders view these as incremental rather than breakthrough gains. OpenAI and xAI trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively amid ongoing development cycles, with market consensus reflecting Anthropic’s edge in targeted capability demonstrations through mid-May 2026. Upcoming leaderboards and any surprise releases before June 30 could still shift positioning, as AI model rankings remain sensitive to new evaluation criteria and scaling improvements.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,457,416Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market due to its recent Claude model iterations demonstrating superior performance on style-controlled generation benchmarks, outpacing competitors in consistency and creative adherence under constrained prompts. Google follows at 23.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and its integration across search and cloud platforms, though traders view these as incremental rather than breakthrough gains. OpenAI and xAI trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively amid ongoing development cycles, with market consensus reflecting Anthropic’s edge in targeted capability demonstrations through mid-May 2026. Upcoming leaderboards and any surprise releases before June 30 could still shift positioning, as AI model rankings remain sensitive to new evaluation criteria and scaling improvements.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,457,416Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market due to its recent Claude model iterations demonstrating superior performance on style-controlled generation benchmarks, outpacing competitors in consistency and creative adherence under constrained prompts. Google follows at 23.5% on the strength of Gemini updates and its integration across search and cloud platforms, though traders view these as incremental rather than breakthrough gains. OpenAI and xAI trail at 5% and 2.5% respectively amid ongoing development cycles, with market consensus reflecting Anthropic’s edge in targeted capability demonstrations through mid-May 2026. Upcoming leaderboards and any surprise releases before June 30 could still shift positioning, as AI model rankings remain sensitive to new evaluation criteria and scaling improvements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes