NHC forecasters are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the Central Pacific, roughly 895 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with an official 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours. This near-term threat, supported by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and favorable environmental conditions, drives the 97.5 percent market-implied probability for formation by August 14. Tropical Storm Hernan in the Eastern Pacific adds to the active basin pattern. While model consensus strongly favors development, minor uncertainty remains around exact timing or intensity thresholds that could technically delay classification just past the resolution window. Updated NHC advisories and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the decisive data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn cyclone tropical se formera-t-il dans les bassins du Pacifique ou du Pacifique central d'ici le 14 août ?
Un cyclone tropical se formera-t-il dans les bassins du Pacifique ou du Pacifique central d'ici le 14 août ?
98% chance
$1,009 Vol.
$1,009 Vol.
15 août 2026
98% chance
$1,009 Vol.
$1,009 Vol.
15 août 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.NHC forecasters are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the Central Pacific, roughly 895 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with an official 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours. This near-term threat, supported by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and favorable environmental conditions, drives the 97.5 percent market-implied probability for formation by August 14. Tropical Storm Hernan in the Eastern Pacific adds to the active basin pattern. While model consensus strongly favors development, minor uncertainty remains around exact timing or intensity thresholds that could technically delay classification just past the resolution window. Updated NHC advisories and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the decisive data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,009Date de fin
15 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.NHC forecasters are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the Central Pacific, roughly 895 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with an official 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours. This near-term threat, supported by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and favorable environmental conditions, drives the 97.5 percent market-implied probability for formation by August 14. Tropical Storm Hernan in the Eastern Pacific adds to the active basin pattern. While model consensus strongly favors development, minor uncertainty remains around exact timing or intensity thresholds that could technically delay classification just past the resolution window. Updated NHC advisories and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the decisive data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$1,009Date de fin
15 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
NHC forecasters are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the Central Pacific, roughly 895 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with an official 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours. This near-term threat, supported by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and favorable environmental conditions, drives the 97.5 percent market-implied probability for formation by August 14. Tropical Storm Hernan in the Eastern Pacific adds to the active basin pattern. While model consensus strongly favors development, minor uncertainty remains around exact timing or intensity thresholds that could technically delay classification just past the resolution window. Updated NHC advisories and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the decisive data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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