Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.5% for Alberta joining the US, reflecting insurmountable constitutional barriers under Canadian law—including the Clarity Act requiring a clear referendum majority and federal negotiations for secession—and the US Constitution's Article IV mandate for Congressional approval of new states, alongside negligible public support. Recent separatist filings on May 5 secured enough signatures for a potential independence referendum by October, fueled by oil-rich province grievances and meetings with Trump officials earlier this year, but leaders prioritize sovereignty over US accession, with February polling showing 71% of Albertans favoring continued Canadian membership. Absent a seismic polling reversal, bilateral treaty, and supermajority approvals, odds remain firmly entrenched.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.5% for Alberta joining the US, reflecting insurmountable constitutional barriers under Canadian law—including the Clarity Act requiring a clear referendum majority and federal negotiations for secession—and the US Constitution's Article IV mandate for Congressional approval of new states, alongside negligible public support. Recent separatist filings on May 5 secured enough signatures for a potential independence referendum by October, fueled by oil-rich province grievances and meetings with Trump officials earlier this year, but leaders prioritize sovereignty over US accession, with February polling showing 71% of Albertans favoring continued Canadian membership. Absent a seismic polling reversal, bilateral treaty, and supermajority approvals, odds remain firmly entrenched.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$6,943Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.5% for Alberta joining the US, reflecting insurmountable constitutional barriers under Canadian law—including the Clarity Act requiring a clear referendum majority and federal negotiations for secession—and the US Constitution's Article IV mandate for Congressional approval of new states, alongside negligible public support. Recent separatist filings on May 5 secured enough signatures for a potential independence referendum by October, fueled by oil-rich province grievances and meetings with Trump officials earlier this year, but leaders prioritize sovereignty over US accession, with February polling showing 71% of Albertans favoring continued Canadian membership. Absent a seismic polling reversal, bilateral treaty, and supermajority approvals, odds remain firmly entrenched.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$6,943Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.5% for Alberta joining the US, reflecting insurmountable constitutional barriers under Canadian law—including the Clarity Act requiring a clear referendum majority and federal negotiations for secession—and the US Constitution's Article IV mandate for Congressional approval of new states, alongside negligible public support. Recent separatist filings on May 5 secured enough signatures for a potential independence referendum by October, fueled by oil-rich province grievances and meetings with Trump officials earlier this year, but leaders prioritize sovereignty over US accession, with February polling showing 71% of Albertans favoring continued Canadian membership. Absent a seismic polling reversal, bilateral treaty, and supermajority approvals, odds remain firmly entrenched.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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