Constitutional requirements under Canada's Clarity Act and Supreme Court precedents on provincial secession create formidable barriers, requiring broad federal and interprovincial consent that remains absent. Recent polling shows firm support for Alberta independence hovering near 16-28 percent, with even lower backing for direct U.S. statehood, while Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney have reaffirmed respect for Canadian sovereignty amid limited Trump administration contacts with separatist groups. Trader consensus at 97.8 percent "No" reflects these structural and electoral realities. Late developments such as a certified referendum passing with overwhelming support, followed by U.S. accession negotiations, or major shifts in energy policy and cross-border relations could still alter trajectories.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
2% chance
$2,189,388 Vol.
$2,189,388 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
2% chance
$2,189,388 Vol.
$2,189,388 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Constitutional requirements under Canada's Clarity Act and Supreme Court precedents on provincial secession create formidable barriers, requiring broad federal and interprovincial consent that remains absent. Recent polling shows firm support for Alberta independence hovering near 16-28 percent, with even lower backing for direct U.S. statehood, while Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney have reaffirmed respect for Canadian sovereignty amid limited Trump administration contacts with separatist groups. Trader consensus at 97.8 percent "No" reflects these structural and electoral realities. Late developments such as a certified referendum passing with overwhelming support, followed by U.S. accession negotiations, or major shifts in energy policy and cross-border relations could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,189,388Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Constitutional requirements under Canada's Clarity Act and Supreme Court precedents on provincial secession create formidable barriers, requiring broad federal and interprovincial consent that remains absent. Recent polling shows firm support for Alberta independence hovering near 16-28 percent, with even lower backing for direct U.S. statehood, while Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney have reaffirmed respect for Canadian sovereignty amid limited Trump administration contacts with separatist groups. Trader consensus at 97.8 percent "No" reflects these structural and electoral realities. Late developments such as a certified referendum passing with overwhelming support, followed by U.S. accession negotiations, or major shifts in energy policy and cross-border relations could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$2,189,388Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Constitutional requirements under Canada's Clarity Act and Supreme Court precedents on provincial secession create formidable barriers, requiring broad federal and interprovincial consent that remains absent. Recent polling shows firm support for Alberta independence hovering near 16-28 percent, with even lower backing for direct U.S. statehood, while Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney have reaffirmed respect for Canadian sovereignty amid limited Trump administration contacts with separatist groups. Trader consensus at 97.8 percent "No" reflects these structural and electoral realities. Late developments such as a certified referendum passing with overwhelming support, followed by U.S. accession negotiations, or major shifts in energy policy and cross-border relations could still alter trajectories.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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