Recent polls from May through mid-August 2026 consistently show 60-72% of Albertans favoring the option to remain a province of Canada on the October 19 referendum question, versus 19-35% support for commencing the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote. Premier Danielle Smith has repeatedly stated her government’s position and her personal preference for staying within Canada while pursuing greater provincial autonomy on issues such as immigration and constitutional powers. Court rulings quashed earlier citizen-initiative petitions over inadequate consultation with First Nations, prompting the government-led referendum that bundles the sovereignty question with other non-separation items. These factors have kept direct support for separation in the low twenties in most surveys, underpinning trader expectations that Alberta will not vote to pursue independence this year.