Ongoing hostilities from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, which targeted military sites and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continue to define relations and preclude any embassy reopening. A conditional ceasefire took effect in April, followed by July 2026 talks in Doha on asset unfreezing and implementation, yet no diplomatic normalization steps have emerged amid persistent tensions and proxy dynamics. Traders assign 96.7% probability to no reopening in 2026, reflecting the absence of bilateral engagement and structural barriers from the conflict. Plausible shifts could arise from successful regime transition negotiations, verified de-escalation agreements, or third-party mediation producing formal ties before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsraël rouvrira-t-il son ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Israël rouvrira-t-il son ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
3% chance
$193,685 Vol.
$193,685 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$193,685 Vol.
$193,685 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, which targeted military sites and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continue to define relations and preclude any embassy reopening. A conditional ceasefire took effect in April, followed by July 2026 talks in Doha on asset unfreezing and implementation, yet no diplomatic normalization steps have emerged amid persistent tensions and proxy dynamics. Traders assign 96.7% probability to no reopening in 2026, reflecting the absence of bilateral engagement and structural barriers from the conflict. Plausible shifts could arise from successful regime transition negotiations, verified de-escalation agreements, or third-party mediation producing formal ties before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$193,685Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, which targeted military sites and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continue to define relations and preclude any embassy reopening. A conditional ceasefire took effect in April, followed by July 2026 talks in Doha on asset unfreezing and implementation, yet no diplomatic normalization steps have emerged amid persistent tensions and proxy dynamics. Traders assign 96.7% probability to no reopening in 2026, reflecting the absence of bilateral engagement and structural barriers from the conflict. Plausible shifts could arise from successful regime transition negotiations, verified de-escalation agreements, or third-party mediation producing formal ties before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$193,685Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities from the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, which targeted military sites and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continue to define relations and preclude any embassy reopening. A conditional ceasefire took effect in April, followed by July 2026 talks in Doha on asset unfreezing and implementation, yet no diplomatic normalization steps have emerged amid persistent tensions and proxy dynamics. Traders assign 96.7% probability to no reopening in 2026, reflecting the absence of bilateral engagement and structural barriers from the conflict. Plausible shifts could arise from successful regime transition negotiations, verified de-escalation agreements, or third-party mediation producing formal ties before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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