Tesla’s stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the market’s strong 89% implied probability against a robotaxi launch by June 30. The company holds only entry-level DMV permits allowing supervised testing with a safety driver and has filed no applications for driverless operations with either the DMV or CPUC, while logging zero autonomous test miles on public roads in recent years. New enforcement rules taking effect July 1 will treat violations as operator liability, yet Tesla has not met the prerequisite 50,000 supervised miles needed to advance. While unsupervised Full Self-Driving software targets Q4 2026 and paid rides with safety monitors continue under a standard charter-party permit, the absence of required permits and testing data leaves insufficient time for approval or deployment before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$105,856 Vol.
$105,856 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$105,856 Vol.
$105,856 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the market’s strong 89% implied probability against a robotaxi launch by June 30. The company holds only entry-level DMV permits allowing supervised testing with a safety driver and has filed no applications for driverless operations with either the DMV or CPUC, while logging zero autonomous test miles on public roads in recent years. New enforcement rules taking effect July 1 will treat violations as operator liability, yet Tesla has not met the prerequisite 50,000 supervised miles needed to advance. While unsupervised Full Self-Driving software targets Q4 2026 and paid rides with safety monitors continue under a standard charter-party permit, the absence of required permits and testing data leaves insufficient time for approval or deployment before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
Volume
$105,856Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tesla’s stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the market’s strong 89% implied probability against a robotaxi launch by June 30. The company holds only entry-level DMV permits allowing supervised testing with a safety driver and has filed no applications for driverless operations with either the DMV or CPUC, while logging zero autonomous test miles on public roads in recent years. New enforcement rules taking effect July 1 will treat violations as operator liability, yet Tesla has not met the prerequisite 50,000 supervised miles needed to advance. While unsupervised Full Self-Driving software targets Q4 2026 and paid rides with safety monitors continue under a standard charter-party permit, the absence of required permits and testing data leaves insufficient time for approval or deployment before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,856Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s stalled regulatory progress in California underpins the market’s strong 89% implied probability against a robotaxi launch by June 30. The company holds only entry-level DMV permits allowing supervised testing with a safety driver and has filed no applications for driverless operations with either the DMV or CPUC, while logging zero autonomous test miles on public roads in recent years. New enforcement rules taking effect July 1 will treat violations as operator liability, yet Tesla has not met the prerequisite 50,000 supervised miles needed to advance. While unsupervised Full Self-Driving software targets Q4 2026 and paid rides with safety monitors continue under a standard charter-party permit, the absence of required permits and testing data leaves insufficient time for approval or deployment before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes