NASA and ESA's network of ground- and space-based telescopes, including radar systems and infrared surveys, continuously track near-Earth objects with sizes capable of a 1-megaton impact. No such asteroid or comet has been identified on a collision trajectory for the remainder of 2026, producing the 98.5% market-implied odds on No. These monitoring technologies have catalogued the large majority of objects in this class, and any undetected body would need to approach from a blind spot while evading multiple independent surveys. The primary remaining uncertainties involve an extremely late detection or an unforeseen fragmentation event, though both remain statistically remote given current observational coverage.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
2% संभावना
$117,248 वॉल्यूम
$117,248 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
2% संभावना
$117,248 वॉल्यूम
$117,248 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA's network of ground- and space-based telescopes, including radar systems and infrared surveys, continuously track near-Earth objects with sizes capable of a 1-megaton impact. No such asteroid or comet has been identified on a collision trajectory for the remainder of 2026, producing the 98.5% market-implied odds on No. These monitoring technologies have catalogued the large majority of objects in this class, and any undetected body would need to approach from a blind spot while evading multiple independent surveys. The primary remaining uncertainties involve an extremely late detection or an unforeseen fragmentation event, though both remain statistically remote given current observational coverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$117,248समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA's network of ground- and space-based telescopes, including radar systems and infrared surveys, continuously track near-Earth objects with sizes capable of a 1-megaton impact. No such asteroid or comet has been identified on a collision trajectory for the remainder of 2026, producing the 98.5% market-implied odds on No. These monitoring technologies have catalogued the large majority of objects in this class, and any undetected body would need to approach from a blind spot while evading multiple independent surveys. The primary remaining uncertainties involve an extremely late detection or an unforeseen fragmentation event, though both remain statistically remote given current observational coverage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$117,248समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...NASA and ESA's network of ground- and space-based telescopes, including radar systems and infrared surveys, continuously track near-Earth objects with sizes capable of a 1-megaton impact. No such asteroid or comet has been identified on a collision trajectory for the remainder of 2026, producing the 98.5% market-implied odds on No. These monitoring technologies have catalogued the large majority of objects in this class, and any undetected body would need to approach from a blind spot while evading multiple independent surveys. The primary remaining uncertainties involve an extremely late detection or an unforeseen fragmentation event, though both remain statistically remote given current observational coverage.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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