Mailza Assis (PP) secured nearly 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, winning 19 of 22 municipalities including the capital, while her main challenger Alan Rick (Republicanos) received 32%. As the incumbent who assumed office in April 2026 following Gladson Cameli’s departure, she benefits from broad coalition backing under the Avança Acre banner and established administrative visibility. These results have produced a commanding lead in trader assessments for the October 25 runoff. A decisive victory remains possible only through major late developments such as unexpected scandals, sharp shifts in voter turnout, or unforeseen campaign reversals, though historical patterns in Brazilian state runoffs favor the first-round frontrunner absent such disruptions.