Lula maintains a commanding lead in Alagoas polling for the October 25 second-round presidential contest, consistent with multiple September surveys showing him ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by 10–20 points in head-to-head matchups. The Northeast state’s historical support for the PT, combined with Lula’s 58% approval rating and Flavio’s higher rejection levels, underpins the market’s 93.8% implied probability for Lula finishing first. Traders appear to view these structural and survey-based factors as durable through the final weeks. Shifts could still occur from late-campaign developments, health events affecting candidates, major scandals, or unexpected turnout changes in key municipalities.