The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAL-02 House Election Winner
AL-02 House Election Winner
$35,118 वॉल्यूम
$35,118 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
69%
Democratic Party
30%
$35,118 वॉल्यूम
$35,118 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
$18,474 वॉल्यूम
69%
Democratic Party
$16,644 वॉल्यूम
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$35,118समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$35,118समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The redrawn boundaries for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, finalized in May 2026 amid ongoing litigation, represent the primary driver behind the Republican Party’s 74.5% implied probability in this special general election market. The new map shifted the district’s partisan leanings, positioning the Republican nominee—Hampton Harris, who advanced unopposed after the May primary was canceled—against Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures in a November 3, 2026 contest. Recent qualification filings and August primary scheduling have reinforced trader focus on these structural changes rather than candidate-specific polling, with the Republican edge reflecting historical performance in similarly configured Alabama districts and limited Democratic crossover support. Uncertainty around final court rulings on the map remains the main variable that could narrow the gap before the general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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