**Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney hold a slim majority in the House of Commons following the 2025 federal election and subsequent by-election gains plus floor crossings, giving them 173 of 343 seats as of mid-October 2026.** Recent polling shows the party maintaining a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, reducing any immediate incentive for an early dissolution. The fixed-date election remains set for October 15, 2029, under the Canada Elections Act, and no confidence motion, supply defeat, or other procedural trigger has materialized. Provincial developments such as Alberta’s October 19 independence referendum and the Parti Québécois victory in Quebec have dominated recent headlines without spilling over into federal instability. Traders therefore price a low probability of Parliament being dissolved and a new election called before late 2026 or 2027, consistent with historical patterns for majority governments.