The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through the April 2026 announcement has kept the probability of any rate hike in 2026 finely balanced near even odds. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions pushed March CPI to 2.4%, prompting the central bank to monitor whether the spike feeds into broader inflation, while weak GDP growth, excess supply, and US tariff uncertainty continue to favor a patient stance. Markets now price limited room for cuts but see potential tightening later in the year if core measures or inflation expectations rise further. The June 10 rate decision and July Monetary Policy Report will provide the next clear signals on whether these crosscurrents shift the implied path for the overnight rate.