The market-implied 86 percent probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official cash rate at its May 27 meeting stems from the central bank’s April decision to hold the OCR steady at 2.25 percent, prioritizing medium-term inflation control despite near-term upside risks from elevated oil prices linked to Middle East developments. Headline inflation is projected to climb toward 4.2 percent in the June quarter, yet subdued domestic demand, elevated spare capacity, and contained core measures continue to anchor the policy stance. Recent Survey of Expectations data showed one-year-ahead CPI expectations rising to 3.41 percent, lifting the mean OCR forecast to 3.01 percent and supporting the modest 14.5 percent chance of a hike, while a cut remains priced at just 0.1 percent given the inflation trajectory. The forthcoming Monetary Policy Statement will provide updated forecasts and clarify whether persistent wage pressures or inflation expectations warrant any adjustment.