California's 15th Congressional District (CA-15), rated Solid Democratic with a D+26 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, bolstered by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's dominant fundraising ($678,000 receipts through March) amid a weak challenger field. The June 2 top-two primary features underfunded Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar—recently criticizing party priorities—as well as Republican Charles Hoelter and no-party-preference Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to advance alongside another Democrat for the November 3 general. Absent polling shows upset risk. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary GOP qualifier, Mullin scandal, or national Republican wave overwhelming the district's entrenched blue lean and historical safe-seat patterns.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -15 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -15 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$114,280 वॉल्यूम
$114,280 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
3%
$114,280 वॉल्यूम
$114,280 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$92,550 वॉल्यूम
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$21,729 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th Congressional District (CA-15), rated Solid Democratic with a D+26 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, bolstered by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's dominant fundraising ($678,000 receipts through March) amid a weak challenger field. The June 2 top-two primary features underfunded Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar—recently criticizing party priorities—as well as Republican Charles Hoelter and no-party-preference Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to advance alongside another Democrat for the November 3 general. Absent polling shows upset risk. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary GOP qualifier, Mullin scandal, or national Republican wave overwhelming the district's entrenched blue lean and historical safe-seat patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$114,280समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th Congressional District (CA-15), rated Solid Democratic with a D+26 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, bolstered by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's dominant fundraising ($678,000 receipts through March) amid a weak challenger field. The June 2 top-two primary features underfunded Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar—recently criticizing party priorities—as well as Republican Charles Hoelter and no-party-preference Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to advance alongside another Democrat for the November 3 general. Absent polling shows upset risk. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary GOP qualifier, Mullin scandal, or national Republican wave overwhelming the district's entrenched blue lean and historical safe-seat patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$114,280समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 15th Congressional District (CA-15), rated Solid Democratic with a D+26 partisan voting index, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, bolstered by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin's dominant fundraising ($678,000 receipts through March) amid a weak challenger field. The June 2 top-two primary features underfunded Democrats Anthony Dang and Mantosh Kumar—recently criticizing party priorities—as well as Republican Charles Hoelter and no-party-preference Jim Garrity, positioning Mullin to advance alongside another Democrat for the November 3 general. Absent polling shows upset risk. Realistic challenges include a surprise primary GOP qualifier, Mullin scandal, or national Republican wave overwhelming the district's entrenched blue lean and historical safe-seat patterns.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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