High polarization in Colombia's June 21 presidential runoff between right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist Iván Cepeda has driven trader expectations toward 60-64% turnout, reflecting the first round's 57.9% participation—nearly three points above 2022 levels—and the concentration of over 84% of votes between the two finalists. This positioning stems from structural factors including the absence of viable centrist options, which historically boosts mobilization of core bases amid security, governance, and economic concerns, alongside potential abstention among first-round nonvoters or those whose preferred candidates fell short. Campaigns now focus on coalition-building and outreach to swing blocs to sustain or lift engagement, though fatigue or localized access issues could cap gains near or below first-round figures in a closely watched contest.