Recent August core PCE data printed at 0.2% month-over-month, below the 0.3% consensus and accompanied by downward revisions to prior months that lowered the year-over-year rate to 3.0%. This softer print, paired with strong consumer spending growth of 0.9%, has narrowed expectations for September while highlighting persistent above-target inflation. With 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes holding the closest market-implied probabilities at 39% and 34%, traders weigh resilient demand against moderating price pressures and potential energy volatility. The release precedes the late-October FOMC meeting, where incoming data will shape assessments of additional policy tightening.