**President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces no scheduled election or constitutional mechanism that would remove him from office before the end of 2026.** Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary vote is set for no later than May 2028, and the current term structure places him firmly in power through at least that cycle absent an early parliamentary vote. Recent developments reinforce continuity. The ruling AKP-led alliance retains parliamentary control sufficient to manage the timeline, while opposition parties—particularly the main CHP—have been weakened by court rulings that ousted key leaders and restricted their organizational capacity. Cabinet adjustments and procedural maneuvers in 2026 have focused on positioning for a potential future term rather than signaling any immediate transition. No verified reports indicate health-related incapacity, resignation plans, or institutional challenges capable of forcing an exit within the next four months. Traders therefore assign extremely low probability to removal by December 31, 2026, viewing the short-term political environment as stable under Erdoğan’s continued leadership.