**Strong trader consensus around a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings reflects the Federal Reserve’s response to persistently elevated inflation amid resilient economic growth.** The September hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range aligned with updated projections showing a median federal funds rate of 4.1% by year-end, while the October pause allowed accumulation of data on price pressures that remain above the 2% goal, with core PCE inflation near 3.4%. Recent CPI prints around 3.7% and solid GDP growth have reinforced expectations for a final 25-basis-point increase in December to reach the implied 4.00-4.25% range. This positioning is further supported by labor market stability, with unemployment near 4.1%, and hawkish signals from officials emphasizing the need for timely progress on inflation. The December meeting, which includes fresh economic projections, serves as the key near-term catalyst. Realistic challenges to the high implied probability could arise from sharply cooler inflation readings or a noticeable softening in employment data that shifts the balance of risks toward a pause.