The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
>2.5% 43%
2.0–2.5% 35%
1.5–2.0% 18.7%
<0.5% 15.0%
$28,267 वॉल्यूम
$28,267 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
<0.5%
15%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
25%
2.0–2.5%
35%
>2.5%
43%
>2.5% 43%
2.0–2.5% 35%
1.5–2.0% 18.7%
<0.5% 15.0%
$28,267 वॉल्यूम
$28,267 वॉल्यूम
29 जन, 2027
<0.5%
$3,906 वॉल्यूम
15%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 वॉल्यूम
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 वॉल्यूम
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,534 वॉल्यूम
25%
2.0–2.5%
$1,846 वॉल्यूम
35%
>2.5%
$4,088 वॉल्यूम
43%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$28,267समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$28,267समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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