Recent European forecast models, including runs from the Met Office and BBC, position Warsaw's August 21 high near 25–26 °C under mild southwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This aligns with late-summer climatology, when incoming solar radiation declines and average highs fall from early-August peaks. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only modest potential for 27 °C if clearer skies develop or for 24 °C if showers increase; probabilities for 28 °C or higher remain low absent a strong ridge or warm-air advection. Updated model output over the past 48 hours has reinforced this narrow range, driving the observed market weighting toward 25–27 °C outcomes.