Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाउष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान सौदेल कितना मजबूत होगा?
उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान सौदेल कितना मजबूत होगा?
बहुत शक्तिशाली चक्रवात 55%
ताफ़ून 21%
भीषण चक्रवात 21%
गंभीर उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान 15%
नया
नया
31 अग, 2026
ट्रॉपिकल स्टॉर्म
7%
गंभीर उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान
15%
ताफ़ून
25%
बहुत शक्तिशाली चक्रवात
55%
भीषण चक्रवात
21%
बहुत शक्तिशाली चक्रवात 55%
ताफ़ून 21%
भीषण चक्रवात 21%
गंभीर उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान 15%
नया
नया
31 अग, 2026
ट्रॉपिकल स्टॉर्म
$20 वॉल्यूम
7%
गंभीर उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान
$19 वॉल्यूम
15%
ताफ़ून
$37 वॉल्यूम
25%
बहुत शक्तिशाली चक्रवात
$35 वॉल्यूम
55%
भीषण चक्रवात
$44 वॉल्यूम
21%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$154समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$154समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and JMA guidance project Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 40-45 mph winds near 12.8°N 150.2°E, to undergo rapid intensification over warm western Pacific waters. This supports the market's leading 56% implied probability for Very Strong Typhoon status, with peak winds around 90 kt and 940 hPa pressure by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions, including low wind shear and high ocean heat content, drive the strengthening, though some runs show slight downward revisions toward Category 2-3 equivalents. Traders appear to weigh the aggressive HAFS and COAMPS-TC solutions alongside official intensity forecasts for the peak classification.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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