The recent closure of the Justice Department’s criminal inquiry into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on the central bank’s headquarters renovation has anchored trader expectations that no federal charges will be filed by June 30. After the probe was transferred to the Fed’s inspector general in late April, no new indictments or subpoenas have surfaced, consistent with historical patterns in which sitting Fed chairs face few successful criminal actions tied to official duties. The short remaining window before the June 30 deadline further limits any realistic pathway to charges, though unexpected developments such as fresh evidence from the inspector general review or shifts in executive-branch priorities could still alter the timeline.