The closure of the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 remains the dominant factor anchoring near-zero implied probabilities of federal charges by year-end. A federal judge quashed related grand jury subpoenas in March, citing essentially zero evidence of criminal conduct and describing the effort as political pressure tied to Powell’s resistance on interest rate policy. The subsequent referral to the Fed’s inspector general for review of the roughly $2.5 billion headquarters renovation overruns further reduced prospects for indictment, with no new investigative activity reported since. Traders on Polymarket, committing real capital, reflect this outcome in prices showing under 3% odds of charges through December 31, 2026, consistent with the absence of fresh catalysts after Powell’s term as chair concluded in May.