Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed by two years after parliament extended its mandate in March amid renewed full-scale conflict with Israel and widespread displacement. This delay, coupled with the 2026 war’s damage to infrastructure and supply lines, has left the contest for the 128 seats highly uncertain under the sectarian proportional system. Amal Movement holds the highest implied probability among listed options due to its organizational reach in core Shiite districts and Speaker Nabih Berri’s long-standing influence, while Lebanese Forces and other Christian parties eye potential diaspora support and reform appeals. Hezbollah faces leadership losses and scrutiny over disarmament, and opposition or independent lists remain fragmented without unified alliances. Trader pricing reflects this dispersion, where coalition negotiations, expatriate turnout, reconstruction priorities, and any further security shifts could consolidate or redistribute seats across the wide field before the rescheduled vote.