**Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Miami projects an overnight low on August 17 in the upper 70s to low 80s, centering market-implied odds on the 78–81°F range.** Typical August conditions feature high humidity, light easterly winds, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under the influence of the Bermuda High, keeping minimum temperatures near the long-term average of roughly 80°F. Current short-range forecasts, including those showing a daytime high near 91°F paired with a 79°F low, align closely with this consensus and explain why 80–81°F leads at 47% while 78–79°F follows at 33.5%. Minor downward revisions in some guidance have lifted probabilities for 76–77°F to 18%, reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover or scattered showers that could enhance cooling. No significant tropical systems or cold fronts are expected to alter the pattern before resolution, so updates from the National Hurricane Center or local NWS Miami briefings remain the key near-term catalysts.