**Traders assign a 99.3% probability that Putin and Zelenskyy will not shake hands by June 30 because recent diplomatic signals show no pathway to a bilateral meeting in the remaining days.** On June 4–5, Zelenskyy publicly proposed direct talks and a ceasefire in an open letter, but Putin rejected the overture outright, stating there was “no point” while Russia’s objectives remain unmet and reiterating demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions as preconditions. Prior 2026 trilateral discussions in Geneva and Abu Dhabi produced no breakthroughs on core issues of territory, security guarantees, or neutrality. With only twelve days left, the absence of scheduled summits, ongoing battlefield conditions, and entrenched positions on maximalist demands make any in-person encounter logistically and politically implausible. A sudden mediated breakthrough or major escalation reversal could theoretically alter the outcome, though current evidence indicates such shifts are remote.