OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 4, combined with demonstrated gains in agentic benchmarks such as long-horizon task completion and internal research-agent productivity, underpins the 93.7% market-implied probability that it ranks as the second-best AI agent lab by end-September 2026. Traders cite OpenAI’s scale in deploying coding and research agents, rapid iteration on tool-use capabilities, and broad API plus ChatGPT ecosystem as durable advantages over peers. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead select indices, yet OpenAI’s timing and integration depth maintain the edge. Realistic scenarios that could narrow the gap include further confirmed agent safety incidents, accelerated open-weight progress from labs like Alibaba’s Qwen series, or regulatory pauses tied to the ongoing industry slowdown discussions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाOpenAI 93.5%
Anthropic 4.5%
Moonshot 1.1%
Z.ai <1%
$61,069 वॉल्यूम
$61,069 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
OpenAI
94%
Anthropic
5%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 93.5%
Anthropic 4.5%
Moonshot 1.1%
Z.ai <1%
$61,069 वॉल्यूम
$61,069 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
OpenAI
$31,135 वॉल्यूम
94%
Anthropic
$6,767 वॉल्यूम
5%
Moonshot
$7,593 वॉल्यूम
1%
Z.ai
$2,168 वॉल्यूम
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,771 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meta
$745 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Alibaba
$824 वॉल्यूम
<1%
$1,086 वॉल्यूम
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Xiaomi
$3,279 वॉल्यूम
<1%
MiniMax
$434 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Nvidia
$944 वॉल्यूम
<1%
ByteDance
$550 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Baidu
$703 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Amazon
$374 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Mistral
$995 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$362 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Microsoft
$531 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 4, combined with demonstrated gains in agentic benchmarks such as long-horizon task completion and internal research-agent productivity, underpins the 93.7% market-implied probability that it ranks as the second-best AI agent lab by end-September 2026. Traders cite OpenAI’s scale in deploying coding and research agents, rapid iteration on tool-use capabilities, and broad API plus ChatGPT ecosystem as durable advantages over peers. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead select indices, yet OpenAI’s timing and integration depth maintain the edge. Realistic scenarios that could narrow the gap include further confirmed agent safety incidents, accelerated open-weight progress from labs like Alibaba’s Qwen series, or regulatory pauses tied to the ongoing industry slowdown discussions.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$61,069समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 4, combined with demonstrated gains in agentic benchmarks such as long-horizon task completion and internal research-agent productivity, underpins the 93.7% market-implied probability that it ranks as the second-best AI agent lab by end-September 2026. Traders cite OpenAI’s scale in deploying coding and research agents, rapid iteration on tool-use capabilities, and broad API plus ChatGPT ecosystem as durable advantages over peers. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead select indices, yet OpenAI’s timing and integration depth maintain the edge. Realistic scenarios that could narrow the gap include further confirmed agent safety incidents, accelerated open-weight progress from labs like Alibaba’s Qwen series, or regulatory pauses tied to the ongoing industry slowdown discussions.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$61,069समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release on September 4, combined with demonstrated gains in agentic benchmarks such as long-horizon task completion and internal research-agent productivity, underpins the 93.7% market-implied probability that it ranks as the second-best AI agent lab by end-September 2026. Traders cite OpenAI’s scale in deploying coding and research agents, rapid iteration on tool-use capabilities, and broad API plus ChatGPT ecosystem as durable advantages over peers. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead select indices, yet OpenAI’s timing and integration depth maintain the edge. Realistic scenarios that could narrow the gap include further confirmed agent safety incidents, accelerated open-weight progress from labs like Alibaba’s Qwen series, or regulatory pauses tied to the ongoing industry slowdown discussions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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