A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +2.0–2.6°C in August 2026 and forecasts pointing to a potential record peak exceeding +3°C by late fall, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing trader-implied odds toward a top-three ranking for September 2026 global temperatures. This event builds on record-high extra-polar ocean temperatures (21.1°C daily average in late August per Copernicus data) and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, with model ensembles showing high confidence in above-normal land and ocean temperatures worldwide through the Northern Hemisphere fall. Differentiation among first-, second-, or third-hottest outcomes hinges on the exact September ramp-up relative to 2023–2024 benchmarks, the influence of a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and minor model spread in ENSO strength, while the low odds for fourth or lower reflect the near-certainty of El Niño-driven warmth overriding natural variability.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासितंबर 2026 रिकॉर्ड पर पहला, दूसरा या तीसरा सबसे गर्म?
सितंबर 2026 रिकॉर्ड पर पहला, दूसरा या तीसरा सबसे गर्म?
दूसरा सबसे गर्म 57%
सबसे गर्म 57%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म 21%
चौथा या उससे नीचे 10%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
सबसे गर्म
57%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
57%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म
21%
चौथा या उससे नीचे
10%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म 57%
सबसे गर्म 57%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म 21%
चौथा या उससे नीचे 10%
नया
नया
30 सित, 2026
सबसे गर्म
$0 वॉल्यूम
57%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
$0 वॉल्यूम
57%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म
$0 वॉल्यूम
21%
चौथा या उससे नीचे
$250 वॉल्यूम
10%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +2.0–2.6°C in August 2026 and forecasts pointing to a potential record peak exceeding +3°C by late fall, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing trader-implied odds toward a top-three ranking for September 2026 global temperatures. This event builds on record-high extra-polar ocean temperatures (21.1°C daily average in late August per Copernicus data) and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, with model ensembles showing high confidence in above-normal land and ocean temperatures worldwide through the Northern Hemisphere fall. Differentiation among first-, second-, or third-hottest outcomes hinges on the exact September ramp-up relative to 2023–2024 benchmarks, the influence of a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and minor model spread in ENSO strength, while the low odds for fourth or lower reflect the near-certainty of El Niño-driven warmth overriding natural variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$250समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +2.0–2.6°C in August 2026 and forecasts pointing to a potential record peak exceeding +3°C by late fall, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing trader-implied odds toward a top-three ranking for September 2026 global temperatures. This event builds on record-high extra-polar ocean temperatures (21.1°C daily average in late August per Copernicus data) and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, with model ensembles showing high confidence in above-normal land and ocean temperatures worldwide through the Northern Hemisphere fall. Differentiation among first-, second-, or third-hottest outcomes hinges on the exact September ramp-up relative to 2023–2024 benchmarks, the influence of a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and minor model spread in ENSO strength, while the low odds for fourth or lower reflect the near-certainty of El Niño-driven warmth overriding natural variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$250समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +2.0–2.6°C in August 2026 and forecasts pointing to a potential record peak exceeding +3°C by late fall, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing trader-implied odds toward a top-three ranking for September 2026 global temperatures. This event builds on record-high extra-polar ocean temperatures (21.1°C daily average in late August per Copernicus data) and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, with model ensembles showing high confidence in above-normal land and ocean temperatures worldwide through the Northern Hemisphere fall. Differentiation among first-, second-, or third-hottest outcomes hinges on the exact September ramp-up relative to 2023–2024 benchmarks, the influence of a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and minor model spread in ENSO strength, while the low odds for fourth or lower reflect the near-certainty of El Niño-driven warmth overriding natural variability.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न