Mat Siscoe holds a dominant position in the St. Catharines mayoral race ahead of the October 26, 2026 vote. As the incumbent first elected in 2022 with nearly 69 percent of the vote, he benefits from strong name recognition, a record of restrained property tax increases, and ongoing regional roles including chair of the Niagara Transit Commission. His recent use of strong-mayor powers to declare a state of emergency after July and August 2026 flooding events, direct infrastructure reviews, and finalize the 2026 budget with a modest 1.74 percent city tax hike have kept him in the public eye. Nominations closed August 21 with five certified candidates, including challengers Anthony A. Adeoye, Ann-Marie Zammit, Jimmy Jackson, and Henry Bosch; the fragmented field and absence of major polling shifts or campaign disruptions have reinforced trader consensus around the incumbent’s lead.