Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया0.9-1.2% 100.0%
नकारात्मक <1%
0.0-0.3% <1%
0.3-0.6% <1%
$53,225 वॉल्यूम
$53,225 वॉल्यूम
14 मई, 2026
नकारात्मक
नहीं
0.0-0.3%
नहीं
0.3-0.6%
नहीं
0.6-0.9%
नहीं
0.9-1.2%
हाँ
1.2-1.5%
नहीं
1.5-1.8%
नहीं
1.8%+
नहीं
0.9-1.2% 100.0%
नकारात्मक <1%
0.0-0.3% <1%
0.3-0.6% <1%
$53,225 वॉल्यूम
$53,225 वॉल्यूम
14 मई, 2026
नकारात्मक
$6,997 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
0.0-0.3%
$11,247 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
0.3-0.6%
$4,651 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
0.6-0.9%
$16,309 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
0.9-1.2%
$4,902 वॉल्यूम
हाँ
1.2-1.5%
$3,810 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
1.5-1.8%
$1,654 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
1.8%+
$3,654 वॉल्यूम
नहीं
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$53,225समाप्ति तिथि
14 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: हाँ
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$53,225समाप्ति तिथि
14 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: हाँ
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: हाँ
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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